Baylor vs. West Virginia Predictions & Best Bets – Thursday, Oct. 13

Sep 17, 2022; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Blake Shapen (12) warms up before the game against the Texas State Bobcats at McLane Stadium.
Image Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

The Baylor Bears will travel to Morgantown for a matchup against the West Virginia Mountaineers. Baylor currently ranks sixth in the Big 12 with a conference record this season. They also own a 3-2 overall record on the season. The Bears have an impressive road win over Iowa State. They don’t have any bad losses, as they’ve lost in overtime on the road against BYU and against a ranked Oklahoma State team.

West Virginia hasn’t been as successful in the Big 12, as they own an 0-2 conference record. They’ve posted a 2-3 overall record in 2022. The Mountaineers have an impressive road win against Virginia Tech, but they’ve struggled in their other games.

In this article, I’ll break down the odds for this game and you’ll find my favorite Baylor vs. West Virginia predictions.

Baylor vs. West Virginia Odds

Baylor-3.5 (-110)-170O 55 (-110)
@ West Virginia+3.5 (-110)+145U 55 (-110)

Odds via Betway Sportsbook as of 4 p.m. on Oct. 11.

Game Info

  • Date: Thursday, Oct. 13
  • Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium – Morgantown, WV
  • TV: FS1

Baylor vs. West Virginia Trends

Let’s take a look at some relevant betting trends for the Baylor vs. West Virginia game:

  • Baylor’s recorded a 3-2 ATS record this season.
  • West Virginia owns a 3-2 ATS record in 2022.
  • As of Tuesday afternoon, 81% of the bets and 77% of the handle were on Baylor -3.5 spread.
  • DraftKings also reports that 77% of the bets and 81% of the handle is on Over 55 points.
  • Baylor’s posted a 3-2 Over/Under record in 2022.
  • West Virginia enters this game with a 3-2 Over/Under record.

The Mountaineers’ Vulnerable Pass Defense

Baylor isn’t an offense that relies heavily on its passing game. They currently own a 45% passing play percentage, which ranks 89th in the NCAA. That doesn’t mean they don’t have a successful passing offense, though. The Bears are averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt in 2022. This ranks 55th in the nation entering Week 7.

This is key because of how West Virginia’s defense is set up. They’re allowing only 105.5 yards per game and 3.4 yards per attempt on the ground this season. Both of these rank in the top 25 of the NCAA. Overall, only 28.6% of West Virginia’s yards allowed have come on the ground in 2022.

Unsurprisingly, they haven’t been nearly as good against the pass this season. The Mountaineers are allowing 264 yards per game and 9.1 yards per attempt through the air. They are giving up 71.5% of their yards on defense through the air, which is the 15th-most in the country.

We’ve seen QB Blake Shapen flash at times this season, and he’s going to be the key to Baylor’s success in this game.

Will Baylor’s Top-Tier Defense Shine?

Baylor features one of the best overall defenses in the NCAA. They are holding their opponents to only 4.7 yards per play this season. This ranks 20th in the country. The Bears are also holding their opponents to only 0.321 points per play this season.

West Virginia has a versatile offense, but they aren’t great by any stretch of the imagination. They’re averaging the 76th-most yards per play (5.3) in 2022. They’re also averaging the 59th-most points per play (0.404) in the nation.

West Virginia’s ability to find success on the ground and through the air is one of the key reasons they have found offensive success this season. They are likely to be relatively one-dimensional against Baylor, though, as the Bears should take away their running game.

For what it’s worth, Baylor will be able to handle its own with its secondary. I do expect Bryce Ford-Wheaton to find some success in this game, but the Mountaineers are going to need someone else to step up as well.

Baylor vs. West Virginia Predictions

This is an instance where Baylor should be able to control every aspect of this game. They have the better offense and defense. I give the Bears an edge on special teams as well. It isn’t shocking at all that they feature a drastically better points-per-play margin.

The spread in this game is going to come down to Baylor QB Blake Shapen. He’s a quarterback that has shown promise, and I’m expecting him to find success in this game. If he does, that will open up the run more, which is what Baylor wants to do.

There’s just too big of a discrepancy between these rosters for this close of a spread.

Pick: Baylor -3.5 | -105 at Betway Sportsbook

More NCAAF Predictions & Bets

Navy vs. SMU Predictions & Best Bets – Friday, Oct. 14

Oklahoma State vs. TCU Predictions & Best Bets – Saturday, Oct. 15