Baylor will travel to Provo in a matchup against future Big 12 rival BYU. The Bears are listed as three-point road underdogs, and we’ll formulate our Baylor vs. BYU predictions based on those odds.
Last year, Baylor came away with a 38-14 victory, but the Bears have plenty of questions to answer in this 2022 campaign. BYU has a strong track record at home, and this should be an entertaining matchup.
With that, let’s dive into the Baylor vs. BYU odds, predictions, and best bets!
Baylor vs. BYU Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | +3 (-110) | +130 | O 53.5 (-110) |
| @ BYU | -3 (-110) | -150 | U 53.5 (-110) |
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook as of 4 p.m. on Sept. 8.
Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 10
- Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
- Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium (Provo, UT)
- TV: ESPN
Baylor vs. BYU Trends
- BYU is 7-5-1 ATS in its last 13 as a home favorite.
- Baylor is 9-5-1 ATS in its last 15 games as an away underdog.
- Baylor is 5-2 to the Under in its last 7 games when the total is between 50-55.
- As of Thursday afternoon, DraftKings reports that 77% of tickets and 71% of the money are on the underdog Baylor against the spread.
- DraftKings also reports that 6% of betting tickets and 60% of the handle have selected Under 53.5 total points.
What To Expect From Baylor’s Offense
The defending Big 12 champion Baylor Bears have new pieces in their starting offensive lineup.
One of those included moving QB Blake Shapen from backup to starter, and he was good in his debut, going 17-20 for 214 yards and two touchdowns. You saw a lot of run-pass options, and Shapen’s big arm is what Baylor feels like they were missing.
Baylor was very comfortable coming into the season with Blake Shapen at quarterback this year and he had a good outing against Albany yesterday.
Even with the average arm, he’s an upgrade over Gerry Bohannon. pic.twitter.com/ZXDst9xveQ
— John “Winter Soldier” Vogel (@DraftVogel) September 4, 2022
This team was excellent in the run game last year but needed to replace Abram Smith and Tristan Ebner. True freshman Richard Reese led the way with 62 yards and two touchdowns, while Qualan Jones recorded his first stats since 2020 with 59 yards and a score. Taye McWilliams was used as the power back and led the team with 12 carries. We will see all three of these guys rotate throughout the season.
The Baylor key to winning games will come through one of the best defensive lines in the country, featuring Siaki Ika, TJ Franklin, Gabe Hall, and Tulsa transfer Jaxon Player — who was one of the best defensive linemen in the transfer portal.
BYU Injuries Could Sway This Game
Overall, BYU returns talent on both lines, holding an advantage in the trenches.
BYU enjoyed an incredible 10-2 season and could have been a consideration for a New Years’ six game, but they are contractually obligated to play in the Independence Bowl if they don’t make the College Football Playoff. I wouldn’t put too much into their loss against UAB, as many of their starters sat out.
Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney will be game-time decisions, per BYU OC Aaron Roderick.
— Kevin Reynolds (@Kevinreynolds30) September 8, 2022
Jaren Hall returns after an impressive first season as the starter. In week 1 he looked sharp, throwing for 261 yards and two touchdowns against South Florida. The question was how they would replace star running back Tyler Aglier and transfer Christopher Brooks looks like he fills the role nicely, running for 135 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries.
The big question is will Hall have Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua? Both are considered a game-time decision on Saturday. Hall and the offense were able to get by against South Florida, but BYU will need both against Baylor.
Baylor vs. BYU Predictions
The key is whether BYU’s offensive line can contain the pressure of the Baylor defense. The Cougars return a ton of talent on offense and could be one of the better units in the country.
Hall is going to need all of his receiving weapons for this game because the Cougar backfield will not have a repeat of their 312-yard rushing performance. If there’s no Nacua or Romney at wide receiver, I can see BYU getting stuffed on offense.
You have to remember Baylor held a 16-point lead last year in the fourth quarter and won by 14. I still love this defense even though they lost some players to the NFL, and Shapen adds an air attack against a BYU team that was middle of the pack in passing defense last year.
Pick: Baylor +3 | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook
