The Cleveland Browns are headed to Foxborough to take on Mac Jones and the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon. The Patriots are 2.5-point favorites in this matchup of two 5-4 teams, so this should be a close one throughout.
With Cleveland’s need to keep pace in the AFC North, will we see a Baker Mayfield interception this weekend?
Odds courtesy of BetPrep, updated 2:00 P.M. Eastern November 12, 2021.
Will Baker Mayfield Throw An Interception In Week 10?
The Prop: Baker Mayfield Total Interceptions
The Odds: Over 0.5 interceptions -141/Under 0.5 interceptions +110
The OBJ Factor
Mayfield has had an up-and-down season so far with a couple of huge games, a couple of stinkers, and a shoulder injury that has left us all wondering about his ability to perform each and every week. With Odell Beckham Jr. now out of the organization, it will be interesting to see how the Browns move forward. In particular, can they win with a young group of outside receivers in Donovan Peoples-Jones and Anthony Schwartz?
I think that the lack of OBJ will impact the passing game. Cleveland’s most talented downfield receiving options are both long-run speedsters that want to beat the defense over the top. This concept would lead me to think that interception rates could increase. This is because throws further downfield are often a bit less predictable and riskier.
On the other hand, OBJ’s need for targets could lead to predictable passing plays and routes. That allowed opposing defenses to jump a route or two. I think that these ideas are more about waiting to see what will happen in the coming weeks. That being said, Mayfield was pretty good last week without his usual #1 target.
Baker Mayfield: Highest-graded QB in Week 9 👀 pic.twitter.com/vNqyFANS6e
— PFF (@PFF) November 8, 2021
Mayfield Interception History
Mayfield has thrown three interceptions this season, all in different games. Two of those came in the first two weeks, which says something about the offensive changes that the team made. I also think Cleveland’s opponents haven’t impacted his ability to keep the ball away from the defenders.
With that in mind, I think you have to take +110 on the under Mayfield interception total. Especially in this game environment, the Browns and Patriots will want to play relatively slow and run the ball. It should be a cold day in New England. I would only expect Mayfield to throw about 25 times maximum in this game and we are getting a discount against a good defense.
