The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox will battle on ESPN tonight. The host Astros are hunting for the best record in MLB. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are fighting to get to .500 and stay in the AL Wild Card race.
There’s a lot to unpack for both teams. Below, we’ll take a look at the Astros vs Red Sox odds to provide our top prediction and best bet in this contest.
Astros vs Red Sox Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox (Eovaldi) | +1.5 (-145) | +145 | O 8 (+118) |
| @ Astros (Garcia) | -1.5 (+122) | -190 | U 8 (-140) |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 10 am ET on August 1.
Eovaldi Is In A Funk
Eovaldi vs Astros: Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t been the same pitcher since suffering a back injury that resulted in an Injured List (IL) trip. In three starts spanning 13.0 innings since his return, he’s had an 11.08 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, and 11.9 K%.
The flamethrowing righty’s heater has been markedly less hot. According to FanGraphs, through his first 11 starts, he had a 96.8 mph average velocity on his fastball. However, since Eovaldi’s return from the IL, his heater has had a 94.7 mph average velocity. Clearly, he hasn’t been as effective with less giddy-up.
Astros offense: The Astros are a nightmare for righties. Houston is tied for fourth with a 114 wRC+ against them in 2022. However, they’ve been in slightly better form lately, owning a 117 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Additionally, Houston loves home cooking. Their 123 wRC+ in home games is MLB’s highest mark this year. On a more micro level, Houston’s lineup is filled with righty-killers. Since last year, Alex Bregman (130 wRC+), Jose Altuve (134 wRC+), Kyle Tucker (145 wRC+), and Yordan Alvarez (171 wRC+) have all had at least a 130 wRC+ against righties.
Garcia Is Better At Home Than Meets The Eye
Garcia vs Red Sox: In 49.2 innings at home, Luis Garcia has had a lackluster 4.89 ERA. Yet, that looks quite unlucky compared to his 3.28 xFIP. Garcia’s 63.1 LOB% and 1.99 HR/9 are the primary culprits for the gap between his ERA and xFIP. Strand-rate issues and homers haven’t traiditionally been a problem for Garcia. Thus, they appear to be a hiccup that’s due for regression.
In all, he’s had a 3.81 ERA, 3.37 xERA, and 3.62 xFIP in 18 starts totaling 99.1 innings. The young righty has pitched at least five innings in 15 of 18 turns, allowing no more than three earned runs 14 times.
Red Sox offense: The Red Sox have been a slightly below-average offense against righties, ranking tied for 17th with a 97 wRC+. However, that undersells how bad they are with Rafael Devers and Trevor Story on the IL. Over the last 30 days, they’re 24th with an 86 wRC+, and their strikeout rate is a jaw-dropping 26.7%.
Boston has also struggled away from its hitter-friendly home park. The Red Sox are tied for 16th in wRC+ (98) in road games in 2022. So, they’re a largely punchless offense.
Astros vs Red Sox Prediction
The Astros have done an excellent job of handling business at home this year and against below-average opponents. According to Baseball-Reference, Houston is 33-15 at home and 37-21 against teams with a sub-.500 record. They’re also 43-22 against righties.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 25-25 on the road, 33-43 against teams above .500, and 34-44 against righties. So the Astros should easily beat the Red Sox tonight.
However, since I loathe eating -190 moneyline chalk, I prefer to tack on a player prop for a two-game parlay instead. Eovaldi has yielded a .365 batting average since returning from the IL, and Yordan Alvarez feasts with the platoon advantage. The left-handed slugger has a .333 batting average in 232 plate appearances against righties this year.
The Pick: Same Game Parlay: HOU -190 ML & Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Hits | +112 at Caesars Sportsbook
