The Los Angeles Angels have mastered the art of finding the banana peel, despite having two generational talents on their roster. They’re 14 games below .500 and playing out the string.
Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners are charging hard toward snapping their postseason drought. It’s a lopsided matchup on MLB Network Tonight. So, how should you approach betting it? The following preview will lay out the case for a nearly EVEN money wager as our best bet.
Angels vs. Mariners Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners (R.Ray) | -1.5 (-105) | -175 | O 7.5 (-110) |
| @ Angels (J.Suarez) | +1.5 (-115) | +145 | U 7.5 (-110) |
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook as of 10 am ET on Aug. 16.
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Ray’s Road Woes Aren’t Worrisome
Ray vs. Angels: According to FanGraphs, Robbie Ray has had an unsightly 5.50 ERA in 55.2 innings on the road this year. That might provide pause for anyone considering betting on the Mariners. However, Ray’s 4.08 xFIP has been more palatable, and the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner has been plagued by homer woes (2.10 HR/9) that are unlikely to persist.
Ray has also been in good form during the summer months. In 13 starts spanning 75.1 innings since June 1, he’s had a 3.23 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, and 28.7 K%. Moreover, Ray has shoved it down the Angels’ throats this year. In two turns against his AL West foe (June 17 and August 5), he’s allowed only two runs on eight hits, three walks, and 20 strikeouts in 14 innings. So, Ray has had their number and should continue to carve up their comically bad lineup tonight.
Angels Offense: The Angels are tied for 27th in wRC+ (82) against lefties this year. Additionally, it’s ugly on a more granular level. Using their last lineup against a southpaw, four hitters have had a sub-70 wRC+ against lefties since 2019, two more have been below a 90-wRC+, and only three hitters have been above average against left-handed pitchers.
The Angels also seem to be trotting with their heads held low toward the finish line. Over the last 30 days, they’re 27th in wRC+ (84).
Mediocre Suarez Has His Hands Full
Suarez vs. Mariners: Jose Suarez has essentially been a swing-man over extended into more starts than he should have been. The lefty has started and relieved games each of the previous three years. This year, Suarez has had a 4.37 ERA and 4.59 xFIP in 12 starts totaling 55.2 innings. Further, since 2020, he’s had a 5.02 ERA in 28 starts.
Suarez has also struggled at home. This year, he’s had a 4.76 ERA and 4.30 xFIP in 108.1 innings. And for his career, he owns a 5.65 ERA and 4.81 xFIP in 108.1 innings at home.
Mariners Offense: The Mariners are loaded with hitters who excel against lefties. They’re tied for 10th in wRC+ (111) against southpaws this year. In addition, eight of their projected hitters have had at least a 101 wRC+ against lefties since 2019, including five with at least a 122 wRC+.
Thus, the Mariners have depth and top-shelf talent. They’ve also done a stellar job on the road this year, ranking 11th in wRC+ (102).
Angels vs. Mariners Prediction
The Mariners should smash their AL West foes tonight. According to Baseball-Reference, the Angels are 16-17 against lefties, 26-34 at home, and a pathetic 26-44 against teams with at least a .500 record.
Conversely, the Mariners are 32-28 on the road and 32-22 against teams below .500. In addition, these teams are headed in opposite directions. Over the last 30 days, the Mariners are 18-12, and the Angels are 13-17.
The Mariners have a massive advantage on the hill tonight that might be outdone by the edge in hitting talent they hold over the Angels. The Mariners have a postseason berth in their sights, so they’re unlikely to sleepwalk through tonight’s cupcake matchup. As a result, instead of laying the juice to bet the Mariners on the moneyline, I prefer to lay the 1.5 runs on the runline.
The Pick: Mariners -1.5 Runs | -105 at BetMGM Sportsbook
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