The American League MVP odds market features a slew of powerhouse names at the top of the betting board — all 30 years old or younger. This includes perhaps the greatest player in modern-day history to never win a postseason series: Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout.
Also among those starting the season on the lead lap of the American League MVP odds race: a viable Triple Crown hopeful (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), a perennial 50-homer candidate (Aaron Judge), four transcendent infielders (José Ramírez, Bo Bichette, Rafael Devers, and Wander Franco) … and baseball’s biggest worldwide star (reigning AL MVP and two-way dynamo Shohei Ohtani of the Angels).
Who among these elite eight players will emerge as the front-runner for 2022 AL MVP? Or might the actual recipient come from outside this group?
With the 2022 Major League Baseball season finally — and thankfully — on the horizon, Props.com kicks off its preseason betting coverage with an American League MVP odds breakdown.
American League MVP Odds
| Player | Team | Odds |
| Shohei Ohtani | L.A. Angels | +350 |
| Mike Trout | L.A. Angels | +400 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Toronto Blue Jays | +400 |
| Aaron Judge | N.Y. Yankees | +1,600 |
| Wander Franco | Tampa Bay Rays | +1,800 |
| Rafael Devers | Boston Red Sox | +2,000 |
| José Ramírez | Cleveland Guardians | +2,000 |
| Bo Bichette | Toronto Blue Jays | +2,000 |
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 3 p.m. EST on March 21.
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The Favorites
L.A. Angels OF/SP Shohei Ohtani (+350)
What will Ohtani do for an encore after amassing 46 homers, 100 RBI, and 103 runs at the plate in 2021 … to go along with 150-plus strikeouts and a sub-3.60 ERA on the mound … and an off-the-charts 9.1 combined WAR? The better question might be, No matter what his follow-up act looks like, will it be enough to impress voters?
It’s a relevant question, because since 1960, only three players have captured AL MVP in back-to-back years: Roger Maris (1960-61), Frank Thomas (1993-94), and Miguel Cabrera (2012-13). And in each case, the trio incurred a major jump in OPS rate following their initial MVP season. Of course, neither Cabrera, Thomas, nor Maris pulled double duty on the mound — let alone did so effectively, as Ohtani did last year. And that could remain the Japanese star’s trump card for the foreseeable future.
You don’t have to be a baseball historian nerd to realize Babe Ruth-like, two-way talents don’t come around that often. Then again, neither do players with the skills of Ohtani’s highly decorated teammate …
L.A. Angels OF Mike Trout (+400)
Trout notched career-best marks in batting average (.333), on-base percentage (.466), and OPS (1.090) last year. The bad news? The center fielder only played 36 games, his season cut short by multiple injuries. Still, those numbers are a strong indicator that — heading into his age-30 campaign — Trout has the ability to collect his fourth MVP trophy. (From 2012-20, Trout finished top-5 in AL MVP voting nine consecutive years.)
It all comes down to availability. If Trout can log at least 140 starts, he’ll likely have the numbers and viral highlights to be an MVP finalist.
Toronto Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+400)
Guerrero led the majors in homers (48), runs (123), OBP (.401), slugging (.601), OPS (1.002), OPS+ (169), and total bases last season (363). And yet, he didn’t garner a single first-place AL MVP vote. That’s what happens when you compete in the same league with this generation’s Ruth.
But let’s say Guerrero wins the triple crown (which he almost did last year, falling 10 RBI short). How would voters react to that historic accomplishment, since only one player in either league — the Cabrera in 2012 with the Tigers — has won the triple crown since 1967?
The Contenders
N.Y. Yankees OF Aaron Judge (+1,600)
Yankees slugger/mountain man Aaron Judge (39 HR, 98 RBI, 89 runs, .287 batting, .373 OBP, .916 OPS in 2021) finished fourth in AL MVP voting last year, largely the result of playing in 148 games — his greatest participation rate since 2017. Which leads to the question that always must be asked when discussing Judge: Will he stay healthy? Because when he’s on the field, the 6-foot-7 outfielder produces big numbers, which he showed again over the final two months of 2021 when he put up 18 homers, 50 RBI, and 37 runs.
Yankees fans would like to think Judge will come close to matching (if not exceeding) his games-played total from last year. After all, as an unrestricted free agent come November, the soon-to-be 30-year-old is playing for a monster contract. But those fans know all too well that it takes just one tweak, sprain, strain, or hit-by-pitch to send Judge to the trainer’s room for an extended stretch.
Tampa Bay Rays SS Wander Franco (+1,800)
After performing admirably in a 70-game big league stint last summer — .288 batting average, seven homers, 39 RBI, 53 runs — Rays wunderkind Wander Franco hit .368 during the postseason.
That effort under the bright October lights was apparently enough for Tampa Bay’s often-frugal ownership to sign the 21-year-old shortstop through the 2033 season. And what a signing it was, as Franco is guaranteed $25 million per year from 2028-33.
Baseball’s No. 1 overall prospect for 2020 and ’21, Franco certainly has the makings of a down-the-road superstar. That said, he’d have to make a monumental development leap to capture AL MVP honors in his first full season.
The Long Shots
Boston Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers (+2,000)
Devers collected 32 homers, 115 RBI, 129 runs, 54 doubles, and a .311 batting average in 2019, but merely finished 12th in AL MVP voting. Last season, he rolled for 38 homers, 113 RBI, and 100 runs … but batted only .279, while placing 11th in the balloting. In fact, 2019 was the only time in four-plus major league seasons that Devers has hit .300-plus.
Could this be an MVP deterrent moving forward? Recent history suggests no. In 2014, Mike Trout essentially rivaled Devers’ 2019 numbers (36 HR, 111 RBI, 129 runs, 39 doubles, .287 average) and ended up sweeping all 30 first-place MVP votes.
So Devers has a path to the award … it’s just that path is clogged with a bunch of other worthy candidates.
Toronto Blue Jays SS Bo Bichette (+2,000)
Blue Jays rising star Bichette can absolutely contend for AL MVP honors, if last year’s numbers (29 HR, 102 RBI, 121 runs, 191 hits, 25 steals, .298 BA) were merely scratching the proverbial surface.
Like his teammate Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bichette is the son of a former big leaguer (Dante Bichette). And like Vlady Jr., he has the talent to put up even bigger numbers than last year — all while playing a premium defensive position (and playing it well).
Cleveland Guardians 3B José Ramírez (+2,000)
Could Ramírez become the first-ever AL MVP to be traded midseason? That’s probably the third baseman’s only hope for bringing home the hardware, since the rebuilding (and rebranded) Guardians likely won’t be contenders for 90-plus victories and/or the AL Central title.
Now, before you scream What about Shohei Ohtani?, who played on a 77-85 also-ran last season, well, we’d be happy to make the same exception for Ramirez (36 HR, 103 RBI, 111 runs, 27 steals, .355 OBP last year) … once he concurrently crushes 40 bombs and registers 150-plus strikeouts as an ace pitcher.
All jokes aside, Ramirez — who finished in the top three in AL MVP voting in 2017 (3rd), 2018 (3rd) and 2020 (2nd) — is one of baseball’s most complete talents. He just needs to align with a title contender.
