Ah, fall. When leaves are on the ground, pumpkin spice is in the lattes, and a young man’s fancy turns to hot dogs and beer. It’s playoff baseball time, baby, which means it’s the best dang time of the year.
We did not, sadly, get the five-way American League Wild Card Pure Baseball Chaos scenario with Oakland, Toronto, and Seattle joining New York and Boston in a marathon of tiebreakers. But we still got a wild-card game Tuesday night that saw the Red Sox prevail over the Yankees 6-2, catapulting Boston into an AL East showdown against the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays. On the other side of the ALDS bracket, the second-seeded Astros battle the third-seeded White Sox.
Someone’s going to the Fall Classic from the four remaining teams. Time to meet your contenders.
Odds via BetMGM and updated as of 7:30 p.m. ET on Oct. 6.
White Sox vs. Astros
Houston: 95-67, won AL West
Chicago: 83-69, won AL Central
Season Series: Astros won, 5-2
ALDS Betting Odds: Astros -125 / White Sox +105
Last season, a green White Sox team finished a game behind the Twins in the AL Central, nabbed the second wild card, but dropped a best-of-3 series 2-1 to Oakland. This year, the youth movement finally roared to full-throated life. That’s right, a young, spry Tony “The Kid” La Russa led the South Siders to an AL Central crown by an MLB-best 13 games.
La Russa will meet up with fellow Zoomer Dusty Baker, who still can’t fathom why fans might still be mad at the Astros, in the best-of-5 ALDS.
The ’Stros are slight favorites in this one at BetMGM, and it’s easy to see why: Houston’s lethal offense piled up a best-in-baseball 863 runs, while the pitching staff let up the seventh-fewest runs in MLB.
Chicago (53-28) had the AL’s best home record in 2021, while Houston (51-30) was third. So it’s no surprise that the home team dominated the seven head-to-head meetings, with the Astros sweeping a four-game set at Minute Maid Park in June and the Sox taking two of three at Guaranteed Rate Field (a name so bad for a stadium it actively chokes the excitement out of any games played there).
Houston’s staff is led by Game 1 probable Lance McCullers, who just pitched to a career year with an ERA+ of 136. In two starts against Chicago this season, the right-hander allowed a total of three runs in 13 innings. That includes a one-run, 10-strikeout, two-hit gem on July 16 when he gave up a leadoff triple to Tim Anderson and a double to Yoan Moncada on his first two pitches, then decided that would be enough hits for the day, thank you for playing.
Chicago will turn to veteran Lancy Lynn in Game 1, but its presumed Game 2 starter, Lucas Giolito did McCullers one better on July 17 by going the distance, fanning eight, scattering three hits, and only surrendering an eighth-inning home run to Abraham Toro. At that point, the Sox already had a 10-run lead and Giolotio couldn’t be bothered to care that he gave up a dinger to the first professional ballplayer named “Abraham” since 1897. (Don’t look it up. We already checked.)
Random thing that will probably confuse baseball casuals: This series figures to feature three longtime starters coming out of the bullpen: White Sox southpaw (and former Astro) Dallas Keuchel, as well as Houston right-handers Jake Odorizzi and Zack Grienke. That’s a combined 5,000 strikeouts right there. Probably won’t get that many in the ALDS, but still.
Red Sox vs. Rays
Tampa Bay: 100-62, won AL East
Boston: 92-70, T-2nd in AL East; won AL Wild Card Game
Season Series: Rays won, 11-8
ALDS Betting Odds: Rays -175 / Red Sox +145
The best team in the American League, the Rays believe starting pitching is a relic of the time when baseball was played on Civil War battlefields. As such, they will carry 41 relievers on their 26-man roster and will find a way to use 63 of them. And they all will have ERAs south of 2.48.
Like they did against basically everyone else in the AL, the Rays held the edge on their AL East rivals, with seven of their 11 wins against the Red Sox coming in the friendly confines of the worst stadium in baseball, Tropicana Field. Three of Boston’s victories came in just the second series of the season for either team, and the Rays can be forgiven for not having re-acclimated fast enough from the pleasant outdoor fields of spring training to life in Florida’s most despicable baseball gulag.
Actually, Tampa dropped the first four regular-season meetings to Boston, then took 11 of the final 15 on the way to winning the AL East by eight games. Which explains why the Rays are a sizable favorite in the series.
Lefty Shane McClanahan will get the Game 1 nod for Tampa on Thursday, and he’s held the BoSox to a piddly .504 OPS in 49 at bats this season — although on Sept. 2, McClanahan gave up four earned to Boston in five innings at the Trop. He won’t be afforded the chance to cough up that many again with 78 fireballing relievers at the ready.
The Red Sox are expected to counter in Game 1 with Chris Sale, who faced the Rays twice after coming off the IL in August. The veteran southpaw was solid in one start (two runs allowed in six innings), but got tagged in the other (five runs, but only one earned, in 3 2/3 innings). In the fourth inning of the latter game, Boston made two errors on one play that led to those four unearned runs. Sale, known for his easy-going ways and laid-back demeanor, was likely thrilled.
Random thing that will probably confuse baseball casuals: A big reason the Rays ran away with the AL East? They went 18-1 against the Orioles, a team doing everything in its power to lose short of calling Albert Belle out of retirement to play out the final three seasons of the contract he never completed due to degenerative hip disease.
