John Supowitz

Alabama vs. Arkansas Predictions & Best Bets – Saturday, Oct. 1

Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson, shown in a 2021 regular-season game.
Image Credit: Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Alabama will get another road test as they head to Fayetteville to take on Arkansas this weekend. This was very close to being a possible College Gameday location and a top ten matchup, but Arkansas lost a close contest against Texas A&M last week. This SEC West matchup still looks like a great battle in the trenches, as No. 2 Alabama will look to remain undefeated while facing No. 20 Arkansas.

Let’s run through our Alabama vs. Arkansas predictions and best bets for Saturday, Oct. 1.

Alabama vs. Arkansas Odds

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Alabama-17.5 (-110)-850O 60.5 (-110)
@ Arkansas+17.5 (-110)+600U 60.5 (-110)

Odds via Betway as of 4 p.m. on Sept. 28 

Game Info

  • Date: Saturday, Oct. 1
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium – Fayetteville, AR
  • TV: CBS

Alabama vs. Arkansas Trends

  • Arkansas is 17-9-1 against the spread in its last 27 games.
  • Alabama is 11-8 against the spread in its last 19 games.
  • The Under has hit in three of the five matchups between these two teams.
  • Arkansas is 12-7-1 against the spread in its last 20 games against SEC opponents.
  • Arkansas is 9-5 against the spread in its last 14 games as an underdog against SEC opponents.
  • As of Wednesday, DraftKings reports that 57% of the spread bets and 74% of the handle are on Alabama against the spread.
  • As for the total, 59% of the bets and 50% of the handle are on the over.

Alabama Gets Another Tough Opponent On The Road

The big concern for Crimson Tide when they squeaked by Texas was the inexperienced but very talented receiving corps. Many believe that Ja’Corey Brooks is the best receiver on this team, but he was slow out of the gate due to injury. He burst through that gate last week, going for 6/117/2 against Vanderbilt.

We know how great of an overall athlete QB Bryce Young is, but he needs help with the pieces around him if the Tide wants to return to the National Championship.

Arkansas Will Try To Rebound After Tough Loss

The Razorbacks were up 14-0 with the chance to punch it in late in the second quarter last week against Texas A&M. KJ Jefferson tried to leap over the pile, fumbles, and recovered by Texas A&M. It looks like Demani Richards is going to be taken down deep in his own territory, but he evades the tackles and broke off an 82-yard fumble recovery.

The swing in that game seemingly undid Arkansas as they scored seven the rest of the way and missed the game-winning field goal as the ball hit the post.

Alabama vs. Arkansas Prediction

Arkansas will try to launch the ground game against this talented Alabama frontline. This will be your key strength vs. strength matchup — the rushing attack featuring RB Raheim Sanders and QB KJ Jefferson going against the Alabama run defense featuring Will Anderson and Jalen Moody.

That Crimson Tide frontline has already been tested this season with Texas’ Bijan Robinson, and they held him to just 57 yards on the ground. Cincinnati’s 50th-ranked rushing defense was the best Arkansas had seen prior to this game. 

Where Bama can falter (and almost did in Austin) was from the offensive line. The problems from this line have carried over from last year, and Texas was able to get in Bryce Young’s face all day. The Hogs have the best pass rush in the country and come in an FBS-leading 20-sacks. 

Young will be scrambling throughout this game, and I can even see a scenario where Arkansas gets a couple of turnovers.

KJ Jefferson has not taken that next step in the passing game, making it challenging to push the ball. This matchup will be decided in the trenches, and these defenses will be the focal point. You see the trends say that Sam Pittman can keep his team competitive against a better opponent. I like Arkansas to be physical enough to keep them within two touchdowns.

Pick: Arkansas +17.5 | -115 at Betway