Every year, a new wave of bright-eyed and bushy-tailed young guns enter the MLB. However, the expectations and pressure to perform are different if you are the No. 1 overall pick. After all, your team has placed enough confidence in you to hopefully make an immediate impact in a struggling organization. Just ask 2020’s first overall pick, Spencer Torkelson, who finds himself on the AL Rookie of the Year odds board. Is he worth a bet, or will the award go elsewhere? Most of the early sports betting enthusiasts have been of the former opinion.
| Player | Team | Odds |
| Spencer Torkelson | Detroit Tigers | +400 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | +400 |
| Julio Rodriguez | Seattle Mariners | +600 |
| Jeremy Pena | Houston Astros | +600 |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins | +600 |
| Steven Kwan | Cleveland Guardians | +800 |
| Adley Rutschman | Baltimore Orioles | +1600 |
| Matt Brash | Seattle Mariners | +2000 |
| Josh Lowe | Tampa Bay Rays | +2000 |
| Riley Greene | Detroit Tigers | +4000 |
AL Rookie of the Year odds and betting data via BetMGM as of May 6, 2022.
Spencer Torkelson: Detroit Tigers (+400)
The Detroit Tigers weren’t the only ones to invest in a top overall pick, as bettors are getting in on the action as well. According to BetMGM, Torkelson checks in with the highest ticket share and handle to win AL Rookie of the Year.
The power-hitting first basemen made an immediate impact when he entered Detroit’s Triple-A organization. Tiger’s manager A.J. Hinch even said “I mean, there’s no secret that the first basemen of the future is going to be Spencer Torkelson. He’s in Triple-A hitting a homer about every other day and he’s opening eyes.”
So it should be no surprise that Torkelson has 22.6% of total bets along with 22.3% of all money on BetMGM for this impressive rookie to take the AL Rookie of the Year award.
Julio Rodriguez: Seattle Mariners (+600)
Even though Torkelson holds the top spot in both ticket and handle percentage, the race is not quite a runaway. Rodriguez is just about equal with the Tigers first baseman with 21.2% of total money on BetMGM and slightly behind with 15.5% of total bets. Although the Mariners center fielder is only batting .220 to start this season, keep in mind that Randy Arozarena won last year’s AL ROY with just a .274 average.
The scouting report for Rodriguez predicts him showing impressive pop and high-level baserunning that could yield some serious results this season. Look for potentially 20-plus home runs and 20-plus stolen bases if the offensive double threat can put the pieces together. He’s already well on his way in the stolen base department, swiping nine bags in 25 games.
These metrics provide Rodriguez a little more breathing room to be more of an all-around player than Spencer Torkelson. So although Torkelson is the favorite because of his head-turning power, Rodriguez may have more skills in his arsenal to take home the AL Rookie of the Year.
Steven Kwan: Cleveland Guardians (+800)
Similar to Rodriguez, Kwan is another rookie center fielder looking to make his mark this season. But unlike these two other AL Rookie of the year favorites we’ve just discussed, Kwan made a huge jump from opening odds of +5000 to current odds of +800.
Popularly known as “Obi-Kwan” for all you Star Wars fans out there, the Guardians center fielder has come out of nowhere to be the diamond in the rough of this year’s crop of rookies. Kwan was a fifth-round pick out of Oregon State, and his scouting card read contact, contact, contact. But now with his current .328 average in the majors, his new calling card might read AL Rookie of the Year.
Bettors have recognized this and the numbers now tell a new story that makes Steven Kwan BetMGM’s biggest liability to win AL ROY. He currently sits fourth overall with 12.0% of total bets and third overall in total money at 13.4%. So if you’re looking for a sleeper this season, you may have found it.
