Our Division Predictions series continues with a look at the AFC West. The Chiefs not only won the AFC West, they also won the Super Bowl.
They’re justifiably the favorite to win the AFC West again this year. However, it’s not appealing to lock up betting funds on their short odds of winning the division. So, a different bet — with a somewhat heftier payout — is the featured best bet for the AFC West Division.
AFC West Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -165 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +340 |
| Denver Broncos | +550 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +1200 |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 23.
New to DraftKings? Go ahead and check out our review — or click the banner below — to see how you can Bet $5 to win $200 in free bets!
Kansas City Chiefs Odds To Win AFC West: (-165)
The combination of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce is a winning trio. They won the AFC West and the Super Bowl last year. There wasn’t anything flukey about their incredible season, either.
First, according to Pro Football Reference, Kansas City had the fourth-best point differential, outscoring their opponents by 127 points. Second, per Football Outsiders, they were fourth in total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Third, Pro Football Focus (PFF) gave them their second-highest overall team grade.
The Chiefs aren’t running it back with an identical roster. Nevertheless, Reid, Mahomes, and Kelce are the integral parts of a well-oiled machine. There isn’t a reason to think they’ll slip up and cede their spot atop the AFC West.
Nonetheless, it’s unappealing for casual bettors with modest bankrolls to tie up meaningful funds on a -165 futures bet. So, there is better value to be had on other wagers in the AFC West.
Los Angeles Chargers Odds To Win AFC West: (+340)
The Chargers went full Chargers in an embarrassing postseason collapse. They led the Jaguars 27-0 in the Wild Card round before losing 31-30. Despite the sour taste the loss left in their mouth, they had a rock-solid 2022 campaign, finishing the regular season 10-7. The Chargers had a positive point differential, scoring seven more points than their opponents.
Frankly, considering the injuries they endured, having a winning record and reaching the postseason was impressive. Stud left tackle Rashawn Slate missed most of the year, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams combined to miss 11 games, and Justin Herbert played through a substantial rib cartilage injury. Los Angeles can build on last year’s showing with even slightly better injury good fortune.
Yet, they might need some time to create offensive cohesion with a new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore. So, expecting them to overtake the Chiefs for the AFC West title is unreasonable.
Denver Broncos Odds To Win AFC West: (+550)
The Broncos were arguably the biggest laughingstock in the NFL last year. His ineptitude on the field somehow outdid Russell Wilson’s cringy off-field antics. And as bad as Wilson was, first-time head coach Nathaniel Hackett was more incompetent. The Broncos relieved Hackett of his duties during the season and made an aggressive move to turn the franchise around with a proven winner in the offseason.
Denver traded a 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 second-round pick to the Saints for Sean Payton and a 2024 third-round pick. According to Pro Football Reference, Payton has a 152-89 record (.631) in the regular season as a head coach, a 9-8 record in the postseason, and a Super Bowl win.
Furthermore, Payton has won at least seven games in all 15 years he’s been a head coach and had a winning record nine times. He’ll add needed stability as the head coach, but Wilson and Denver’s offense needs to make significant strides to keep up with their AFC West counterparts. The Broncos were 29th in offense DVOA, 28th in PFF’s offense grade, and 32nd in scoring offense (16.9). Denver has too far to climb on that side of the ball to be a legitimate contender in the AFC West.
Las Vegas Raiders Odds To Win AFC West: (+1200)
The Raiders pushed chips in the middle last year by trading for Davante Adams. Their win-now move helped them finish 6-11. It wasn’t what they envisioned, suffice to say. Las Vegas was outscored by 23 points and ranked 26th in total DVOA.
In the offseason, they moved on from Derek Carr and replaced him with Jimmy Garoppolo. The quarterback change is akin to rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, and no one has to travel to the bottom of the ocean in a remote-controlled vessel to see this shipwreck. The Raiders are giving Josh McDaniels another year as their head coach. Unsurprisingly, after going 11-17 in just under two seasons as Denver’s head coach, he’s faceplanting again.
The Raiders are the worst team in the division and have the worst head coach. So, they’re justifiably priced as the longest shot to win the AFC West.
AFC West Predictions & Best Bet
The Broncos should take a step forward this year. Payton has the chops to lift the Broncos from the basement to at least average on offense this year. In addition, Denver’s defense, which wasn’t discussed in their write-up above, is an above-average unit.
The Broncos were 10th in total defense DVOA, eighth in PFF’s defense grading, and tied for 14th in scoring defense (21.1 points per game). If Wilson returns to pre-2022 form, they could spoil this bet by finishing second in the division. However, I have more faith in Herbert and company to finish ahead of Denver.
And, finally, the Broncos should easily finish ahead of the lowly Raiders. Thus, getting +190 odds on Denver finishing third in the AFC West is a fun bet.
Best Bet: Denver Broncos Division Finish – Third | +190 at DraftKings Sportsbook
More Division Odds & Predictions
Check out Josh’s predictions from across the other NFL divisions: