In the high-tech, information-obsessed world of sports betting, the only industry constant — especially during the NFL season — is change. Nobody knows this better than the Kansas City Chiefs and their backers.
Nearly two weeks ago when we looked at the updated AFC West betting odds, bookmakers were leaning slightly toward the Los Angeles Chargers as the favorite to win the division. At that point, the odds were as much about what the Chiefs weren’t doing (5-4 start) as where the Chargers stood (5-3, including a win at K.C.)
Now, though, with Kansas City (7-4 overall, 1-1 AFC West) suddenly riding a four-game winning streak, those oddsmakers have had a change of heart.
With the surging Chiefs (7-4 overall, 1-1 division) on bye this week; the Chargers (6-4, 2-0) traveling to Denver (5-5, 0-1) for a key divisional battle against the Broncos; and the struggling Raiders (5-5, 1-2) heading to Dallas for a Thanksgiving Day clash with the Cowboys, Props.com once again revisits the constantly evolving AFC West betting odds.
And we do so from a two-tiered perspective.
Tier I: The Betting Favorites
The current gap separating the AFC West field is 1.5 games — it’s the closest divisional battle in professional football (tied with the AFC North).
In that context, Kansas City probably shouldn’t be deemed as robust favorites to carry the West. But don’t tell that to sportsbook operators, who are in full agreement about the Chiefs’ title chances.
BetMGM: Chiefs -145 / Chargers +160
Caesars: Chiefs -140 / Chargers +160
DraftKings: Chiefs -135 / Chargers +160
FanDuel: Chiefs -150 / Chargers +160
TwinSpires: Chiefs -143 / Chargers +160
**Odds updated as of 3 p.m. ET on Nov. 23.
The big thing those odds tell us: Bookmakers believe in Kansas City again, but more importantly, so does the betting market. So even though the Chiefs have a scant half-game lead on the Chargers (and have already lost to L.A. at home), they remain a very public team. As such, oddsmakers have tacked a bit of a “tax” on the team that’s won five consecutive AFC West titles.
There are additional reasons why the Chiefs are the current AFC West favorite, including:
— Kansas City, which should come out of its Week 12 bye in reasonably good health, has a plus-40 scoring differential during its ongoing 5-1 run. And that includes a 27-3 loss at the Titans.
— The Chiefs’ defense — which yielded 29 points or more in each of the first five games — has surrendered 17 or fewer points five times in the last six. (Lone exception: at Tennessee).
— Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has never lost a road game to the Chargers, Raiders, or Broncos. He’s 11-0 in enemy territory, including a 41-14 rout of the Raiders in Las Vegas two weeks ago.
— No matter the venue, Mahomes has never lost to the Broncos in seven meetings. Kansas City and Denver will square off in Weeks 13 and 18.
— Finally, in their final seven games, the Chargers face only two teams that currently have a losing record (Giants at home, Texas on the road). The other five contests: home-and-home against Denver, at the Bengals, home versus the Chiefs, at the Raiders.
Tier II: The Long Shots
In less than two weeks, the Broncos and Raiders’ respective odds for winning the AFC West have plunged by more than 150 percent.
BetMGM: Broncos +1000 / Raiders +1800
Caesars: Broncos +1500 / Raiders +2000
DraftKings: Broncos +1000 / Raiders +1800
FanDuel: Broncos +1600 / Raiders +2000
TwinSpires: Broncos +1600 / Raiders +2000
**Odds updated as of 3 p.m. ET on Nov. 23.
On paper, the Broncos (NFL’s No. 3 scoring defense, 17.0 points per game) have a workable remaining schedule. They face the Chargers (Sunday), Lions, Bengals, and Chiefs at home. The three road games are all inside the division, meaning Denver will control its own destiny in the West.
But back to the home slate: Through six dates at Empower Field at Mile High, the Broncos are averaging only 14.5 points. That’s a ridiculously low tally, considering the team’s built-in advantages of playing at altitude and in front of a partisan crowd.
The problem for the Raiders is on the other side of the ball. Las Vegas ranks 25th in scoring defense (26.2 points per game) and 17th in turnover differential (net zero).
Complicating matters for the Raiders: They might have the most difficult remaining schedule of any AFC West team. In addition to being this week’s biggest underdog at Dallas, Las Vegas figures to be sizable pups on the road against Kansas City (Week 14), Cleveland (Week 15), and Indianapolis (Week 16).
The Raiders’ three home games — Washington, Broncos, Chargers — aren’t walks in the park, either.
Yes, in a world of constant change, the betting community at least can depend on one thing: the Raiders wilting down the stretch. Over the past three seasons, the franchise is 6-14 in games played after Nov. 20.
