In September, when Props.com last checked into AFC West odds, the Broncos were riding high at 3-0, the Chiefs were alone in last place, and Raiders coach Jon Gruden was the toast of Las Vegas.
OK, so a lot can change in one NFL month, even within a division that has experienced only two head-to-head encounters through six-plus weeks (Chargers at Chiefs; Raiders at Broncos).
Props.com offers a fresh look into each team’s respective odds to win the AFC West, a hotly contested divisional race separated by just 1.5 games, from top to bottom.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, Circa Sports, DraftKings, FanDuel, and TwinSpires, and updated as of noon ET Oct. 22.
Kansas City Chiefs (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS)
BetMGM: -105
Circa Sports: +115
DraftKings: +110
FanDuel: +110
TwinSpires: +100
Mediocre record aside, the Chiefs remain the favorite on the AFC West odds board. Perhaps that’s because their offensive stats compare favorably with seasons past. Kansas City ranks second overall in total offense (433.5 yards per game), second in passing offense (308.5 ypg), fifth in scoring offense (30.8 points per game), and 10th in rushing offense (125.0).
More noteworthy, since 2018, Kansas City is 15-4 in divisional play. In fact, during that 19-game stretch, Patrick Mahomes hasn’t lost a road start in the AFC West.
However, the 2021 Chiefs aren’t close to mirroring their above-average defensive prowess of the last two seasons, when Kansas City ranked seventh and 10th in points allowed, respectively. This year, K.C. has allowed 29 or more points in the first five games. And the Week 7 quasi-commendable effort, allowing 13 points at Washington, might have been more a case of a sluggish offense helmed by former XFL quarterback Taylor Heinicke than a sustainable defensive revival.
Potential trouble looms for the Chiefs’ defense, which draws the Titans, Packers, Raiders, and Cowboys before a Week 12 bye.
There’s still time for the Chiefs to get hot and run away with the division crown for the sixth consecutive year. The 2010 Packers opened at 3-3, but rallied for an 11-3 finish (including playoffs) to win the Lombardi Trophy. And the 2001 Patriots famously started at 5-5 before a young Tom Brady shepherded the club to nine straight victories and the first Super Bowl title of the Brady/Bill Belichick era.
Los Angeles Chargers (4-2 SU/ATS)
BetMGM: +150
Circa Sports: +150
DraftKings: +125
FanDuel: +140
TwinSpires: +135
Bookmakers universally agree that the Chargers are the No. 2 choice on the AFC West odds board and that there’s a Grand Canyon-esque gap to the Nos. 3 and 4 Raiders and Broncos. Is this an odd stance to take, considering how Los Angeles has given up 76 points over the last two weeks? The quick answer suggests no, since the Chargers’ defense ranks no lower than 14th in sacks, forced fumbles, fumble recoveries, and interceptions.
Several more positives work in favor of the Chargers, who have a Week 7 bye. From Weeks 8-18:
- The Chiefs are the only top-10 scoring offense on L.A.’s schedule.
- The Raiders and Broncos have two games against the Chiefs, while the Chargers — who already beat K.C. on the road — have only a Week 15 home game vs. Kansas City.
- None of the Chargers’ next five foes are above .500, with a cumulative 13-17 mark.
- After trips to Denver and Cincinnati in Weeks 12 and 13, Los Angeles’ final five games are at indoor/retractable-roof venues, a potentially good harbinger for the offense.
Las Vegas Raiders (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)
BetMGM: +650
Circa Sports: +650
DraftKings: +800
FanDuel: +650
TwinSpires: +700
The Raiders deserve kudos for rebounding quickly from the Jon Gruden saga and subsequently hanging 34 points on the Broncos a few days later. But was that AFC road upset an emotional response to Gruden’s exit or a sign of more stable things to come with this enigmatic franchise? Can Las Vegas consistently win with the NFL’s 30th-ranked rushing attack?
Las Vegas averages 79.8 rushing yards per game — a couple of yards more than Derrick Henry’s glorious 76-yard touchdown run against the Bills in Week 6. Neither Josh Jacobs nor Kenyan Drake has rushed for more than 60 yards in a game this season. In fact, the only noteworthy effort came from Peyton Barber, who had 142 total yards (111 rushing) and one touchdown in a Week 3 home overtime win vs. Miami. But Barber has logged just one carry since then.
One possible bright spot: the AFC West and NFC East square off throughout this season. The AFC West is currently 4-1 in those contests, and the Raiders have yet to play the Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, or Washington.
Denver Broncos (3-4 SU/ATS)
BetMGM: +2000
Circa Sports: +1205
DraftKings: +1200
FanDuel: +2000
TwinSpires: +3000
After a 3-0 start against bottom-feeding teams (Giants, Jaguars, and Jets), the Broncos have come hurtling back to earth with a four-game slide. Thursday’s 17-14 defeat to the Browns might have been the most vexing of the bunch, given Cleveland’s significant injury issues. The Browns had no Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, or Kareem Hunt, but Case Keenum, D’Ernest Johnson, and fullback Johnny Stanton stepped up to beat the Broncos.
In Weeks 8-10, Denver hosts Washington, then travels to Dallas and Philadelphia. Anything short of a 2-1 mark might be devastating to the Broncos’ hopes of reaching the playoffs — let alone contending for the division crown.
