The major offseason activity is in the books. So, it’s time to check around the sportsbook landscape, shopping for the best team futures. Armed with a wealth of information, now is the time to get some division winner tickets and monitor line movement as the offseason progresses. Attentive bettors usually nab the best odds in these markets months before the season starts.
The NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, and NFC West have been covered. Meanwhile, we’re halfway through the AFC, having analyzed the AFC East and AFC North. So next, let’s look at the AFC South predictions.
After perusing the odds at multiple sportsbooks, FanDuel Sportsbook has the most favorable odds for my favorite bet for the AFC South. However, it pays to look around and get the longest odds if you’re leaning in a different direction.
AFC South Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | -120 |
| Tennessee Titans | +160 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +700 |
| Houston Texans | +3000 |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of August 10.
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Indianapolis Colts Odds To Win AFC South: -120
The Carson Wentz experience didn’t go according to the Colts’ plan last year. In Week 18, they needed only a win over the NFL-worst Jacksonville Jaguars to punch their ticket to the postseason, and they were manhandled, losing 26-11. The loss sent them home fishing for the offseason, and the team pulled the plug on Wentz after one unceremonious season, trading him to the Washington Commanders.
They’ve replaced Wentz with Matt Ryan. The general feeling is they upgraded at the sport’s most important position, but that’s not reflected in all advanced metrics. For example, Ryan had a better Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade than Wentz last year. However, Wentz was ranked higher in Football Outsiders’ and ESPN’s Total QBR and Sports Info Solutions’ IQR metrics. Still, Ryan was markedly better than Wentz in all three metrics in 2020, bested him in all three in 2018, and was on par with Wentz in 2019. Thus, Matty Ice should be a more consistent option and is probably a legitimate upgrade.
In addition, the Colts were an above-average team in many meaningful measures. For example, they were tied for 12th with the AFC South-winning Tennessee Titans in total PFF grade, 11th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), 10th in Weighted DVOA, and had the seventh-best scoring margin, outscoring their opponents by 86 points. The AFC South is arguably the worst division in the NFL, and the Colts should ride their all-world running back Jonathan Taylor to a winning record, which might be enough in this division.
Tennessee Titans Odds To Win AFC South: +160
The Titans were the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year. However, a look under the hood reveals a fraudulent record, and they were promptly dispatched by the Cincinnati Bengals in their only playoff game.
The Titans were tied with the Colts for 12th in PFF grade, 20th in DVOA, 13th in Weighted DVOA, and had the 11th-best point differential (+65 points). However, head coach Mike Vrabel helped them overachieve and persevere through injuries to Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones. Henry returned for the playoffs but was underwhelming with 62 rushing yards on 20 attempts. The team also traded Brown for a first-round pick they used on his replacement, Treylon Burks. Jones is also gone after the team cut him.
Tennessee was due for regression even if they ran it back. However, after trading Brown, asking Burks to replace his production is a tall task. It’s also reasonable to wonder if Henry will be the same player coming back from injury and with more than 1,600 touches, including the postseason, on his odometer. The South is wide open, so the Titans should be in the mix, but they’re not my favorite pick to win the division.
Jacksonville Jaguars Odds To Win AFC South: +700
The Jaguars wisely ended Urban Meyer’s embarrassing tenure after a 2-11 start. Drawing a fan’s name out of a raffle to serve as Jacksonville’s next head coach likely would have resulted in a more accountable and capable leader. Obviously, they didn’t do that, and Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson is the new leader in the head coaching seat.
Still, the Jaguars have a long climb to the top after picking first for the second consecutive year. Last year, they were 31st in PFF grade, 32nd in DVOA, 30th in Weighted DVOA, and last in point differential, getting outscored by a staggering 204 points.
It’s possible Trevor Lawrence can take a sizable step forward in his second season, but the Jaguars finish with a losing record. In fact, that’s a probable outcome. The Jaguars added four players with top-75 picks in the NFL Draft, selecting first, 20th, 65th, and 70th. They also took a buffet instead of fine-dining approach in free agency, filling up on quantity rather than quality. Nevertheless, the additions will help their depth and competency. The Jags are a trendy longshot pick in certain football circles on Twitter, but I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid.
Houston Texans Odds To Win AFC South: +3000
The Texans were also one of the worst teams in the NFL last year. As a result, they fired head coach David Culley and replaced him with Lovie Smith. These days, the veteran coach is best known for his large white beard. Finally, Houston accomplished what was likely their most significant offseason goal, trading Deshaun Watson for a sizable draft-pick haul.
They had two top-15 picks in this year’s draft, picking at three and 15. They also had three more top-75 selections, drafting at 37, 44, and 75. Houston further revamped their roster in free agency, adding a collection of competent veterans but no high-end talent. The lack of elite additions means it’s unlikely they will contend for the AFC South title.
In 2021, they were 32nd in PFF grade, 28th in DVOA, 28th in Weighted DVOA, and 30th in point differential, getting outscored by 172 points. Again, like the Jags, they’ll probably improve this year without jumping into the division-title mix. They’re a fade, even at enticing odds in arguably the NFL’s worst division.
AFC South Predictions & Best Bet
First, I don’t love any wagers for the AFC South. However, the Colts look like the class of a lousy division. The Titans overachieved last year, and the Colts should get more consistent play from Ryan. In addition, most of the Colts’ advanced metrics were better than Tennessee’s in 2021, and the two club’s workhorse running backs are at different points in their career, with Taylor ascending and Henry on the back nine of his career. Thus, I’m backing the slightly favored Colts to win the division as my favorite AFC South bet.
Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts to win the AFC South (-120 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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This promotion expires on September 19 – so act now!
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More Division Odds & Predictions
Check out Josh’s predictions from across the other NFL divisions: