The AFC North’s season-long war of attrition has been something to behold, with mounting injuries and COVID-related absences wreaking havoc with each franchise.
At the same time, heading into Week 15, the AFC North is the NFL’s only division without a team under .500.
This sets up nicely for a thrilling January finish, particularly for those who got involved in the AFC North betting market. Only 1.5 games separate the top and bottom clubs, a narrow gap that’s mostly due to the fact the division’s current leader — which might not have the 2019 NFL MVP this weekend — has dropped its last two games.
Props.com analyzes the latest AFC North betting odds as the four contenders jockey for position as the 2021 NFL regular season reaches a four-week sprint to the finish line.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, Circa Sports, DraftKings, FanDuel, and TwinSpires, and updated as of 4:30 p.m. Dec. 17.
Baltimore Ravens (8-5 SU/6-7 ATS)
BetMGM: +140
Circa Sports: +130
DraftKings: +140
FanDuel: +140
TwinSpires: +125
If the Ravens win their final four contests (vs. Green Bay, at Cincinnati, vs. L.A. Rams, vs. Pittsburgh), they’ll be undisputed North champions. They also likely would be in the running for the AFC’s No. 1 seed — on the partial strength of a 36-35 victory over the Chiefs in Week 2.
(Kansas City, at 10-4, currently sits atop the AFC pecking order.)
Any combination of future losses, however, could be devastating to the Ravens’ postseason hopes, given their poor division record (1-3), middling conference mark (5-5), and the potential for losing head-to-head tiebreakers to the Bengals (3-1 division record) and Browns (2-2 division record). Baltimore split the season series with both teams.
This boom-or-bust proposition underscores how thin the margins are right now for the Ravens, who have never missed the playoffs since Lamar Jackson took over as starting quarterback (2018-20).
Speaking of Jackson, he departed last week’s loss at Cleveland with an ankle injury, and his status is in doubt for Sunday’s home game against the Packers. If Jackson cannot play Sunday — he hasn’t practiced all week — it’s possible that the Ravens, who already are a 7-point underdog, could be a double-digit pup by kickoff.
Cincinnati Bengals (7-6 SU/6-7 ATS)
BetMGM: +240
Circa Sports: +250
DraftKings: +250
FanDuel: +220
TwinSpires: +220
Cincinnati’s standing as the consensus second choice in the AFC North odds market is interesting. While the Bengals share the same record as Cleveland, the Browns possess the head-to-head advantage, thanks to their 41-16 rout from Week 9. Also, Cleveland is set to host the rematch in Week 18.
Additionally, Cincinnati will encounter three playoff contenders in Weeks 15-18: At Denver (Sunday), Baltimore (home), and Kansas City (home) — the same Chiefs who currently boast the AFC’s best record (a half-game ahead of the Patriots and Titans).
Which begs the question: Are the young Bengals mature enough to handle the pressure that awaits?
Since Week 6, Cincinnati has four victories, all of them double-digit routs by margins of 19 points or more. However, the Bengals also have lost four times during this span, dropping two close decisions (each by three points) and suffering two lopsided setbacks (by 25 and 19 points).
On the plus side, Bengals tailback Joe Mixon has been remarkably consistent for more than two months, averaging 92.3 total yards and 1.3 touchdowns over the last 10 outings. For cold-weather games in December/January, winning teams tend to lean heavily on prodigious rushing attacks.
Cleveland Browns (7-6 SU/5-8 ATS)
BetMGM: +220
Circa Sports: +260
DraftKings: +225
FanDuel: +220
TwinSpires: +300
The Browns arguably have been affected by COVID protocols more than any other NFL team. As such, Saturday’s home game against Las Vegas has already been rescheduled for Monday.
Cleveland now will play Monday (5 p.m. EST kickoff), then have a tough turn-around road game at Green Bay in an exclusive-window Christmas Saturday game.
Updated week 15 NFL schedule: pic.twitter.com/arIrOhkCgW
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 17, 2021
The good news: The 48-hour postponement buys quarterback Baker Mayfield time to pop two negative COVID tests, which he needs to be cleared to play against the Raiders.
If the playoffs began today, Cleveland (4-5 AFC) would be the first team out of the AFC postseason party by virtue of a worse conference record than Indianapolis (7-6 overall/6-3 AFC) and Buffalo (7-6 overall/5-5 AFC).
Given their one-game deficit in the AFC North and subpar conference mark, the Browns realistically need to win at least three of their final four games (vs. Las Vegas, at Green Bay, at Pittsburgh, and at Cincinnati). And if the Browns suffered that loss, in a perfect world it would come against the NFC’s Packers (for tiebreaker purposes).
Should the Browns suffer more than one loss, there’s a good chance they’ll be sitting home for Wild Card Weekend.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6-1 SU/5-8 ATS)
BetMGM: +1,100
Circa Sports: +1,200
DraftKings: +1,200
FanDuel: +1,200
TwinSpires: +1,000
The only thing keeping the Steelers from joining Cleveland and Cincinnati in a three-way tie for second place: an inexplicable tie against the (then-winless) Lions at home in Week 10. And while Pittsburgh does own division victories over the Ravens (home) and Browns (road), coach Mike Tomlin’s squad already has been swept by the Bengals.
So for the Steelers to repeat as division champs, they likely have to knock off the Titans at home this week, win at Kansas City next week, then take down the Browns (home) and Ravens (road) in the final two weeks. Then they have to hope Cincinnati drops at least one of its final four contests.
Pittsburgh could survive one defeat and still claim the division crown. However, that loss almost certainly would have to come against one of their two non-divisional opponents (Titans or Chiefs). And even then, the Steelers would need the Bengals to lose twice.
