AFC East Odds: Sportsbooks Overreact To Aaron Rodgers Trade?

a New York Jets helmet rests near the sidelines during the game between the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, January 8, 2023 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
Image Credit: Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The AFC East odds have changed dramatically over the past two months. That’s especially true following a blockbuster trade that sent NFL MVP-winner Aaron Rodgers to the Big Apple. The Jets, who finished last in the division with a 7-10 record last year, are now considered strong contenders with Rodgers leading their offense.

The trade — which was confirmed on Monday, April 24 — has not only brought Rodgers’ exceptional talent to the Jets but has also significantly shifted the betting odds in their favor. Let’s dive in below.

AFC East Odds Change With Rodgers Trade

The opening odds at BetMGM (back in February) for the AFC East division were as follows:

  • Buffalo Bills: +100
  • New England Patriots:+325
  • Miami Dolphins:+400
  • New York Jets:+500

However, with the addition of Rodgers to the Jets’ roster, their odds have drastically improved. The new odds at BetMGM (as of April 25) after the trade are as follows:

  • Buffalo Bills: +130
  • New York Jets:+225
  • Miami Dolphins:+325
  • New England Patriots:+750

New York’s odds to win the AFC East have been ticking up with rumors swirling that Rodgers would choose the Jets as a trade destination. Just days prior to the deal taking place, the Jets had +250 odds to win the division, which improved to +225 after the deal took place.

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Jets-Packers Trade Details

The trade details, as reported by NFL insider Adam Schefter on Twitter, reveal that the Jets received Aaron Rodgers, pick No. 15, and a 2023 5th-round pick (No. 170) from the Green Bay Packers.

In return, the Packers received pick No. 13, a 2023 2nd-round pick (No. 42), a 6th-round pick (No. 207), and a conditional 2024 2nd-round pick that could become a 1st-round pick if Rodgers plays 65 percent of the plays.

The addition of Rodgers to the Jets’ roster is a game-changer.

Rodgers, who has been a perennial Pro Bowler and a Super Bowl champion, brings his exceptional passing skills, football IQ, and leadership to a team that has been rebuilding in recent years.

With Rodgers at the helm, the Jets’ offense instantly becomes more potent, and their chances of winning the AFC East division for the first time since 2002 have significantly improved.

Bills Seek Fourth-Straight Division Title

While the AFC East has long been dominated by the Patriots, the landscape has shifted in recent years with Brady’s departure from the division.

The Bills emerged as the new favorites, winning the division in 2020, 2021, and 2022. However, with the Jets’ acquisition of Rodgers, the balance of power in the AFC East has shifted once again. The Jets are now considered legitimate contenders, as the current AFC East odds show.