The best point-spread team in the land goes for its nine consecutive ATS triumph — this time as a double-digit road favorite.
A top 10 team that’s tied for the fourth-best point spread record is catching nearly three touchdowns.
Another top 10 team, which boasts the third-best point spread record, travels to an opponent with one of the nation’s worst ATS marks (thanks to six consecutive non-covers).
Two border rivals that are a combined 16-4 Under the total are set to clash in the heartland, where they probably will show fans what college football looked like back in 1961.
Lots of intriguing college football betting storylines heading into Week 12, and we’ve got them all covered in this week’s College Football Betting Trends Report (which, as always, considers only FBS vs. FBS results).
All ATS and Over/Under stats are reflective of VegasInsider.com’s final consensus lines.
How ’Bout Them Cowboys?
One touchdown. One measly touchdown is all that separates Oklahoma State from a perfect point-spread record against FBS competition.
Flashing back to mid-September: A week after a narrow win over FCS lightweight Missouri State in their season opener, the Cowboys held off Tulsa 28-23 as an 11.5-point home chalk, failing to cover the spread by that TD. Since then? Nine games, nine spread covers for Mike Gundy’s squad.
Now, ordinarily, teams on lengthy ticket-cashing streaks eventually reach a point where they’re barely beating the oddsmakers (who tend to place a “tax” on hot ATS teams). Not the Cowboys, though. Over the last three weeks, Oklahoma State owns a 52-point victory over Kansas (as a 29-point favorite), a 21-point victory over West Virginia (a 3.5-point favorite), and a 46-point victory over TCU (as an 11.5-point favorite).
We’ll do the math for you: The Cowboys have covered the spread by a total of 75 points in their last three games.
This week, Gundy’s troops take their FBS-specific 8-1 ATS record to Lubbock, Texas, to face Texas Tech. OSU is a consensus 10.5-point favorite against the Red Raiders, who are coming off a 41-38 upset of Iowa State … as an 11.5-point home underdog.
The Cowboys aren’t the only team atop the point-spread leaderboard that will take the field as a road chalk in Week 12. East Carolina (7-1-1 ATS in FBS contests, including seven straight covers) is a 4-point choice at Navy on Saturday, while Michigan (8-2 ATS) is laying 14.5/15 points at Maryland. The Terps are 2-7 ATS this season and haven’t cashed a ticket since September (six straight non-covers).
What Are The Odds?
While Michigan-Maryland is interesting from a dichotomous spread-covering spectrum, it’s another Big Ten battle that is drawing the bulk of the attention (and action) in Week 12. Michigan State travels to Ohio State in a clash of teams sitting fourth and seventh, respectively, in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings.
Since failing to cover in their first three games (0-2-1 ATS), the Buckeyes have delivered for their backers, cashing in five of seven. Michigan State, meanwhile, is among six teams with a 7-2 ATS record, going 4-1 ATS on the road.
Now here comes the “however” … However, that one road setback came two weeks ago at Purdue, where the Spartans fell 40-29 as a 2.5-point favorite. Seven days later, Purdue went to Ohio State and got blasted 59-31. So you take Michigan State’s 11-point loss to the Boilermakers in Week 10 and the Buckeyes’ 28-point rout of the Boilermakers in Week 11, and you get Ohio State -19 vs. Michigan State in Week 12.
Back in the Big 12, two teams with a combined 13-5 ATS record in FBS-specific action are set to duke it out, albeit in a virtual pick ’em contest. Kansas State, which is 7-2 ATS and has won and covered four in a row, hosts Baylor, which is on a 6-1 ATS upswing after last week’s upset of Oklahoma. The line is ranging from K-State -1 to pick.
Other intriguing matchups from a point-spread perspective in Week 12:
— Appalachian State (7-2 ATS) is -9.5/-10 at Troy (3-6 ATS)
— Texas-San Antonio (7-2 ATS) is -4.5 vs. Alabama-Birmingham (6-2 ATS run, including 4-0 ATS on the road)
— Notre Dame (7-1 ATS run, including five in a row) is -17 vs. Georgia Tech (1-5 ATS slump)
Golden Eagles Finally Soar For Bettors
It took nine games and more than two months, but Southern Miss finally got to the window in Week 11. The Golden Eagles traveled to Texas-San Antonio and held their own for 60 minutes, eventually losing 27-17 but easily cashing as a 33-point underdog for their first cover of the season.
More good news for Brett Favre’s alma mater: Both Indiana and New Mexico stumbled against the number last week, and as a result, those schools join Southern Miss in the point-spread basement. All three are 1-8 ATS in FBS outings.
A whopping nine teams are standing on the basement stairs at 2-7 ATS (scroll down for the identities of these money-burners).
As mentioned, Maryland (0-6) and Georgia Tech (1-5) are mired in lengthy spread-covering slumps, but they’re not alone. Stanford and Texas are 0-5 ATS in their last five; Temple is 1-7 ATS in its last eight, and Florida International and USC are, like Georgia Tech, in a 1-5 ATS funk.
Joining Oklahoma State (8-0), East Carolina (7-0), Notre Dame (7-1), and K-State (6-1) on positive ATS runs are Georgia State (7-1, including five in a row); Syracuse and Washington State (6-1); and Baylor, Pitt, Wisconsin, and Utah State (5-1).
Top 25 Turnaround
A week ago, we lamented the poor point-spread performance of Associated Press Top 25 teams in Week 10 — the first such negative showing by ranked teams all season. Week 11 brought a return to “normalcy,” as ranked squads went 15-9 ATS.
This week’s crop of Top 25 teams sports a cumulative 140-89-4 ATS record against major-college competition. That includes a stellar 63-30-1 ATS mark (67%) by Top 10 teams.
While this week’s Top 5 schools are turning a nice profit (27-19-1 ATS, 57.5%), it’s the next group of five that is destroying bookmakers: No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 7 Michigan State, No. 8 Michigan, No. 9 Oklahoma State, and No. 10 Ole Miss are cashing at a 76.6 percent clip (combined 36-11 ATS) in FBS games.
Remarkably, only four ranked squads enter Week 12 with a sub.-500 point-spread record: No. 12 Oklahoma is 3-7 ATS, while No. 14 BYU, No. 22 Louisiana-Lafayette, and No. 24 Utah are all 4-5 ATS.
How Low Can You Go?
The late, great George Carlin once joked that one way to make baseball more exciting would be to randomly place a series of landmines in the outfield. It’s something the grounds crew might want to consider doing ahead of Saturday’s Illinois-Iowa matchup in Iowa City — anything to help keep the fans awake.
Because all indications are the Illini and Hawkeyes are headed for a three-hour snoozefest the likes of which the football world hasn’t seen since the Eisenhower administration. In 20 games this season, these Big Ten rivals have combined to stay Under the total 16 times, with Illinois (9-1) being the most profitable Under team in the land.
Despite perfect midafternoon autumn weather — forecasted temps in the mid-50s, no wind, no rain — oddsmakers have set this total at 38.5. Perspective: When these teams met at Illinois some 50 weeks ago, the Hawkeyes scored 35 by themselves!
The Illini are riding the longest Under streak in the nation (eight in a row), but they have company in the low-scoring games department. Penn State (8-1 Under, four in a row) and Boise State (8-2 Under, five in a row) also field defensive-minded squads.
Looking for a lot of scoring and excitement? Head to — of all places — Salt Lake City, as Utah is the top Over team in the country at 7-2 in FBS action. The Utes, who host Oregon this week, have topped the total in six consecutive games. From there, 11 teams are 6-3 to the Over.
That’s right: Out of 130 schools playing major college football in 2021, only a dozen have seen as many as two-thirds of their games climb Over the total.
And now you know why the Under has cashed in 54 percent (319-269-4) of this season’s FBS vs. FBS contests.
ATS Standings
Best:
Oklahoma State 8-1
East Carolina 7-1-1
Michigan 8-2
Appalachian State 7-2
Kansas State 7-2
Michigan State 7-2
Pittsburgh 7-2
Syracuse 7-2
Texas-San Antonio 7-2
Worst:
Indiana 1-8
New Mexico 1-8
Southern Miss 1-8
UCF 2-7
Clemson 2-7
FIU 2-7
Kansas 2-7
Maryland 2-7
Missouri 2-7
Rice 2-7
Temple 2-7
TCU 2-7
Over/Under Standings
Over:
Utah 7-2
Arkansas 6-3
FIU 6-3
Houston 6-3
UL Monroe 6-3
Louisiana Tech 6-3
Missouri 6-3
Pitt 6-3
Rice 6-3
Tennessee 6-3
Tulsa 6-3
Western Kentucky 6-3
Under:
Illinois 1-9
Penn State 1-8
Boise State 2-8
FAU 2-7
UL Lafayette 2-7
Southern Miss 2-7
Washington 2-7
East Carolina 2-6-1
