The Monday Night Football contest between the San Fransisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams awards us one more chance to make some dough correctly selecting Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Week 10. First, however, if you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, have no fear.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Monday Night Football of Week 10.
Elijah Mitchell OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards
Elijah Mitchell is producing a fantastic rookie campaign. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he is fifth in rushing yards per game (78.2). In addition, he’s attached to an offense that runs a little more than the league average.
According to Sharp Football Stats, in Jimmy Garoppolo’s seven starts, when the offensive scoring margin is between trailing by seven points and leading by seven points, they are running at a 43% clip, one percent above the league average. In addition, Mitchell has surpassed 66.5 rushing yards in three of fives games with Garoppolo.
The matchup is a plus for Mitchell’s over’s outlook as well. According to Football Outsiders, the Rams are fifth in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and 14th in rush defense DVOA. Thus, I expect the 49ers to attack the Rams where they are weaker, defending the run.
Finally, the 49ers should run more plays due to facing the Rams’ up-tempo offense. According to Football Outsiders, the Rams are playing at the fastest situation neutral pace. Unsurprisingly, Bet Prep supports taking the over, projecting Mitchell to rush for 73.07 yards.
Darrell Henderson Jr. UNDER 2.5 Receptions
Robert Woods is out for the remainder of the year after suffering a knee injury a few days ago. As a result, ancillary options in the Rams’ passing offense will be called upon to pick up the slack. However, Odell Beckham Jr. is going to also be eased into action starting tonight.
The changing dynamic could lead to Darrell Henderson Jr.’s number being called more often. However, I don’t think that will be the case this week. First, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the 49ers are only mid-pack in receptions allowed to running backs. Second, last week, the Rams’ backfield route distribution raises concern that Henderson might be ceding ground to Sony Michel. According to Pro Football Focus, in Week 9, Henderson ran 27 routes to 22 for Michel.
Looking at Henderson’s game log, he’s caught more than 2.5 passes in four of eight games. Digging deeper, two of the games he exceeded 2.5 receptions were losses. Therefore, he’s only cleared 2.5 receptions in two of six games when the Rams won. The Rams are favored tonight, and I expect them to win. So, that’s a knock against Henderson’s outlook for the over. Finally, once again, Bet Prep agrees with my pick, projecting him for 2.35 receptions.
Tyler Higbee UNDER 44.5 Receiving Yards
Finally, Higbee is a candidate for an increased role in the passing game with Woods out. However, he doesn’t have much room for growth from a routes perspective. Higbee is third on the Rams in routes (288), and he’s not a far cry behind Cooper Kupp (331) and Robert Woods (319). And, despite running a bunch of routes, he is averaging only 36.0 receiving yards per game.
Higbee has surpassed 44.5 receiving yards in only three of nine games. Because he isn’t commanding targets on his sizable routes to this point this year, I’m not optimistic about him suddenly doing so in a challenging matchup this week. The 49ers have allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards (271) to tight ends this year. Further, Bet Prep is in alignment with this selection, projecting Higbee for 40.57 receiving yards.
