In case you missed it, Tyrod Taylor is back as the Texans quarterback after missing the last six games due to injury.
Taylor is quite an upgrade over rookie Davis Mills, and the player best suited to benefit is wide receiver Brandin Cooks.
Cooks is the clear top option in this Houston offense, and I like him to go over his receiving yards line, with odds set at 72.5 yards.
Here are three reasons why.
Volume Is King
Cooks is tied for 12th in the NFL in targets per game, at 8.8. When I bet props, I’m looking for players with established roles in their offense, and no one has a steadier presence than Cooks on this Texans team.
Cooks has 585 receiving yards on the season to go along with his 70 targets, 400 more than the next closest receiver.
In the two games Taylor played in, Cooks had 210 receiving yards. With his QB back in tow, Cooks seems poised for a big game.
Vulnerable Secondary On The Other End
Targeting weak defenses is the key to betting props, in my opinion, and this Miami Dolphins secondary is as bad as they get.
Miami is a bottom-ten defense in opponent’s yards per pass and has allowed 39 passes of 20+ yards this season, the most in the NFL.
Since Week 3, 82.4% of wide receivers have gone over their receiving yardage prop against the Dolphins, a mammoth hit rate.
Cooks is going to have plenty of opportunities to capitalize here, and it’s why he’s one of my favorites this weekend.
BetPrep Pushes The Pick To The Finish Line
If you haven’t yet explored the BetPrep site when researching player props, you need to. You can dig into every player to see their usage, projection, recent games, and trends to support the pick you’re eyeing.
On Cooks’s page, you see a usage chart that tops out at 15 targets in one game, and a positive trend.
Cook has caught 73+ receiving yards in 6 of his last 8 (75%) games when he had at least six catches last game. In games where this situation applies, Cooks is averaging 98.4 receiving yards per game, well above his projected total for Week 9.
Load me up some Brandin Cooks this weekend in a soft matchup.
For more on the NFL, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets. Good luck this weekend!