Here we go with our best college football bets for Week 4 of the NCAAF season.
Our Props.com analysts were asked to list their top two NCAAF picks for the weekend. You can view each writer’s overall record in the section towards the bottom of this article.
Also, don’t forget to check out our College Football Parlay Picks article for Week 4. Some of these best bets are used to create parlays each week.
Best College Football Bets: Week 4
These best college football bets were compiled earlier in the week, so there’s a chance the lines have shifted since publishing this article.
Oklahoma-Cincinnati Over 57.5 Points (-110)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Over 57.5 Points | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Oklahoma and Cincinnati are two teams that are willing to push the pace in their games. They currently rank 47th and 67th in the country in seconds per play, respectively.
Oklahoma features one of the most prolific passing offenses in the NCAA. They rank third in points per play (0.766), although they haven’t played the toughest competition. Regardless, this will be an offense that can score on anyone.
Cincinnati isn’t a defense that you’re going to be scared away from, though. They rank 83rd in the country, allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt this season. They also haven’t faced the stiffest competition at this point, and Oklahoma will be the best offense they’ve faced thus far.
I don’t truly have any concerns about Oklahoma scoring, and it comes down to whether or not Cincinnati can keep up with them.
The Sooners have featured a strong defense thus far, but they haven’t faced any great offenses. They did hold SMU to 11 points, but I don’t expect that to be the typical performance from this team.
Cincinnati is a versatile offense because of their quarterback. Emory Jones is a veteran quarterback who can win with his arm or his legs. They’ve also found success with other running backs.
Ultimately, I do believe that Cincinnati should be able to keep this game relatively close. I don’t fully trust them to beat the spread, but they’re going to have to score if that’s the case. These two teams are in great spots to show off their offenses.
SMU/TCU Over 63.5 Points (-109)
Analyst: Justin Bales
Where to bet: Over 63.5 Points | -109 at BetRivers
This game is all about opportunity. SMU and TCU are two teams that love pushing the pace in their games. SMU ranks 46th in the NCAA in seconds per play, while TCU ranks fourth in that category.
Both of these offenses can score points in a hurry. More importantly, both of these defenses have shown plenty of holes, specifically in their secondaries, early this season.
SMU did struggle to put up points against Oklahoma, but I believe there are more holes in this TCU defense than Oklahoma. They’ve shown the ability to score 30+ points with ease, and that may be a number they need to hit in this game.
On the other side, TCU has shown the ability to win on the ground or through the air. They’re too versatile of an offense, and I don’t anticipate SMU having any answer for them.
The biggest key is that this game stays relatively close so neither team slows down in the second half. If that happens, they should soar over this point total this week.
USC -35 at Arizona State
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: USC -35 | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook
The Trojans had two weeks to prepare for this game, and we’re hopeful that it won’t cool down their offensive power. They are on the cusp of being the highest-scoring offense in the country, and this can be credited to Caleb Williams. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner aspires to have his name mentioned in the same breath as Archie Griffin, given that his impressive 240.5 Passing Efficiency rating leads the nation and makes him currently the odds-on favorite for another trophy.
Unfortunately, the Arizona State season hasn’t begun well, with consecutive losses to Oklahoma State and Fresno State. True freshman four-star recruit Jaden Rashada is out for 4-6 weeks with an injury. This does look good for ASU as Drew Pyne, Jacob Conover, and Trenton Bourguet did not perform well last week, accumulating only a combined 188 passing yards in the shutout loss to Fresno State. Last season, the Sun Devils managed to stay in the game until the final four minutes without falling behind by two scores, but with the way the Trojans have been running up the score, this will get ugly.
UCLA-Utah Under 52.5
Analyst: John Supowitz
Where to bet: Under 52.5 | -110 at BetFred Sportsbook
The Bruins weren’t initially ranked at the start of the season, but their strong performances against mid-majors Coastal Carolina and San Diego State, along with a resounding victory against FCS NC Central, have propelled them to No. 22. True freshman five-star recruit Dante Moore has been efficient with the ball, boasting the 12th-best QBR in the country, but we’ve yet to witness his full potential, primarily because he’s only averaging 17 passes per game. This is due to the excellent performance of the backfield tandem of TJ Harden and Carson Steele, with Harden averaging 8.4 yards per carry and Steele with 6.4 yards.
Despite missing their third-year starting quarterback Cam Rising, the PAC-12 champions have displayed remarkable resilience. If Rising is unable to play, it’s likely that Nate Johnson will once again take the reins at quarterback. While he may not match Rising’s passing efficiency, he has demonstrated the ability to gain positive yardage with his legs. Despite these teams having offensive talent, it’s been each of their top ten defenses that have carried them. We’re going to see a rare Pac-12 defensive battle.
Best College Football Bets: Results
- Justin Bales: 3-3
- John Supowitz: 2-4