When Atlanta Braves center fielder Adam Duvall stepped to the plate with two outs in the bottom of the first inning Sunday night and blasted a grand slam, World Series bettors who backed Atlanta to win the Fall Classic probably started counting their winnings. After all, Duvall’s blast gave the red-hot Braves — who were up 3-1 in the best-of-7 series — a quick 4-0 lead over the Houston Astros in Game 5.
But with their backsides figurately slammed against the wall, the Astros began chipping away against a slew of Atlanta relief pitchers and scored nine of the game’s next 10 runs to prevail 9-5, sending the series back to Houston. (And the Astros — presumably — didn’t even need to rely on a trash can lid to save their season.)
With Game 6 set for Tuesday following Monday’s travel day, Props.com takes a look at the updated World Series betting odds and action.
Braves Still In The Driver’s Seat
Heading into Game 5, the World Series betting market had the Braves as a 5-to-1 favorite to finish off Houston and claim their first world championship since 1995. Those odds probably doubled — at least — after Duvall’s first-inning grand slam Sunday.
However, now that the series has shifted to Houston, the odds to win the series have also shifted — and rather significantly.
While the Braves are still solidly favored, the line has shortened to Atlanta -250/Houston +200 at PointsBet USA. The odds are similar at TwinSpires Sportsbook (Atlanta -240/Houston +190), BetMGM (Atlanta -225/Houston +180), and DraftKings (Atlanta -220/Houston +190).
Obviously, the Braves are in the better position, needing to win just one of two games to put away Astros, who must win both Game 6 and 7 to capture their second title in franchise history.
TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said that while his shop avoided the worst possible outcome — Astros winning the series in six games — it is still on the hook for two sizeable Houston wagers: $1,200 on the Astros at +375 and $2,000 on the Astros at +195 (both bets were made at adjusted-series prices).
Likewise, PointsBet trading analyst Mike Korn says his book is in solid shape in terms of the outcome, at least as it pertains to World Series futures bets made earlier in the season. However, that doesn’t mean Korn’s team doesn’t have a slight rooting interest — and most of it boils down to World Series MVP props.
“We have worked up a decent liability on some Braves players to win MVP — outfielders Jorge Soler and Austin Riley, specifically — and the Braves to win the series,” Korn said. “So we’ll be rooting for the Astros to come back.”
Astros Trying To Overcome History
Barring an unforeseen injury or pitching change, the Astros will take the field Tuesday as the favorite to extend the World Series to a seventh and final game. In Game 6, Houston is -127 at TwinSpires (Atlanta +107), while PointsBet and DraftKings are at Houston -125/Atlanta +105. BetMGM has it at -120/+100.
The Astros figure to get a huge emotional boost with the series returning to Minute Maid Park, where they went 51-30 during the regular season. They’re also 7-2 at Minute Maid over the last calendar month — but both defeats came in the playoffs (Game 2 of the ALCS and Game 1 of the World Series).
The biggest obstacle Houston faces, though, is history: Since 1968, only 14 of 90 teams (15.6%) that were down 3-1 in a playoff series rallied to win. More daunting for the Astros and their fans is the fact only three teams since 1969 have overcome a 3-1 series deficit: the 1979 Pirates, 1985 Royals, and 2016 Cubs.
Now you know why despite squandering Duvall’s first-inning grand slam in Game 5 — and despite having to fly back to Houston and play in a hostile environment — the Braves remain the overwhelming favorite to be spraying champagne in the visiting clubhouse either Tuesday or Wednesday night.
Mattress Mack Sits Tight … For Now
Of the thousands of Houston fans rooting for the Astros to make history, no fan is rooting harder than Jim McIngvale. The furniture magnate known as Mattress Mack made numerous sizeable wagers on his hometown team to win the World Series as a hedge against potential losses on a mattress promotion. One of those wagers: $2 million on the Astros at 10-to-1 odds at Caesars Sportsbook.
When asked Monday if he planned to do a little more hedging prior to the start of Game 6, McIngvale indicated he was inclined to continue to let his wagers ride.
“I’m good right now,” McIngvale told Props.com’s Patrick Everson via text message. “There’s no telling what I’ll do when I wake up tomorrow, but for now, I’m standing pat.”
