Props Staff

MLB Home Run Derby Predictions, Props & Best Bets (2023)

Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez (44) celebrates after hitting a home run against the Houston Astros during the third inning at T-Mobile Park.
Image Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Get ready to swing for the fences with our 2023 MLB Home Run Derby predictions, props, and best bets.

Before we dive in, let’s set the ground rules: these HR Derby predictions are all about fun, so think of them as pizza bets instead of a high-stakes wager.

So, grab your popcorn, prepare for some homer heroics, and let’s dive into the entertaining world of HR Derby predictions!

MLB Home Run Derby Predictions: Outright Winners

Here are the Props.com staff MLB Home Run Derby predictions for who will lift the trophy at the end of the event:

Julio Rodriguez Outright Winner (+550)

Analyst: Matt LaMarca

The field for this year’s derby features two-time champ Pete Alonso as the favorite. While Pete clearly loves this event, I’m not 100% sure that he’s healthy at the moment.

He came back much quicker than expected from an IL stint after being hit by a pitch on the wrist, and his power stroke has not returned with him. He has just four homers in 19 games since rejoining the lineup after slugging 22 homers in his first 62. Wrist injuries are notorious for sapping a player’s power, so I’m hesitant to back the Polar Bear on Monday.

Instead, let’s go with the hometown favorite. Rodriguez is in the middle of the pack in terms of odds, partly due to his matchup vs. Alonso in the first round. He’s an underdog in that individual matchup, but if he can get past Pete, there’s no reason he can’t win the whole thing.

Rodriguez has prodigious power, with only Vlad Guerrero Jr. owning a superior max exit velocity in this field. His 32 homers in the first round of last year’s derby was also the fourth-highest mark in history, so he’s capable of putting on a show.

In a ballpark he’s familiar with as the fan favorite, I like his chances to improve upon last year’s runner-up finish. I also like Rodriguez at +140 to upset Alonso in the first round, but +550 to win the whole enchilada is a better bet.

Where to bet: Julio Rodriguez Outright Winner | +550 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Randy Arozarena Outright Winner (+950)

Analyst: Josh Shepardson

Randy Arozarena is an underdog in his first-round matchup – more on that to come – and has a tasty betting line to win the Home Run Derby. However, this bet suggestion isn’t merely chasing a nice line.

Instead, Arozarena has two significant factors working in his favor. First, he hits the ball hard. According to Baseball Savant, Arozarena’s 97.1 mph average FB/LD exit velocity is tied with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s mark for the highest in the Home Run Derby field. Second, he’s on the easier side of the bracket. 

The winner of Arozarena versus Adolis Garcia will face the winner of Luis Robert versus Adley Rutschman.

Neither Robert nor Rutschman have ideal batted-ball data. Instead, they have the two lowest average FB/LD exit velocities in the field at 93.9 mph (tied for 101st) and 91.7 mph (tied for 205th). Robert’s and Rutschman’s FB/LD exit velocity and rankings are significantly lower than recent winners.

So, I love the odds of the winner of Arozarena and Garcia reaching the finals, and betting on each to win isn’t a bad strategy, either.

Where to bet: Randy Arozarena Outright Winner | +980 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Outright Winner (+360)

Analyst: Matt Brown

First off, who wouldn’t want to see the first father-son combo to win the HR Derby? After all, Vlad Sr. took the crown in 2007.

This would also be a nice turning point in the season for Vlad Jr. Questions surrounding his power arose when he failed to hit his first home run of the season at the Rogers Centre until June 23.

If you also add that little extra bit of motivation after falling just short of the crown in 2019, Vlad Jr. just might be the one to have that chip on his shoulder this time around in 2023.

Redemption story aside, the numbers of Vladito’s outright win also support the claim. He is in the 98th percentile this year across all MLB players in Average Exit Velocity, Max Exit Velocity, and Hard Hit Percentage.

Now I’m no statistician, but those numbers all translate to home runs to me. To top it all off, he is the American League leader in hard-hit balls (152) this season, well ahead of his first-round opponent, Mookie Betts, who has just 126.

With these convincing stats supporting an outright win, we also know that if need be, Vlad Jr. also has a 40 home run round and triple swing off in his back pocket if someone decides to try to take him the distance… no pun intended. 

Where to bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Outright Winner | +360 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Adolis Garcia Outright Winner (+700)

Analyst: John Supowitz

Garcia is on his way to surpassing his career-best in home runs, as he is just eight shy of that mark of 31.

The Rangers outfielder is known for his power-hitting, and that number has steadily increased over the last couple of seasons.

Additionally, his average exit velocity is in the 91st percentile, hard-hit percentage in the 90th, and barrel in the 94th. I also admire his effortless and compact swing, as well as his ability to hit for power all around the ballpark.

He draws what is considered the easier side of the field, as he won’t face derby veterans like Pete Alonso or Vlad Jr. until the finals.

Where to bet: Adolis Garcia Outright Winner | +700 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Luis Robert Outright Winner (+550)

Analyst: Justin Bales

Robert leads the competitors in home runs this season, yet he owns the third-best odds to win. Sure, that isn’t exactly what we should be looking at, but there is a major key with his home runs compared to the other players. 

The Home Run Derby will take place at T-Mobile Park. It’s a relatively big stadium with a small advantage for lefties over righties. There aren’t any lefties that make sense here since Adley Rutschman is the only one available. 

Instead, I’m looking for raw power here. Robert ranks third in the MLB with 14 no-doubt home runs, meaning they would have been home runs in all 30 stadiums. He also owns a 53.8% “no doubter percentage.” 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Rutschman are the only two competitors with higher no-doubter rates than Robert. Rutschman isn’t a power hitter, though, and it’s tough to believe he can keep it up for multiple rounds. Guerrero is the bigger concern, but the odds are too good to pass up at the moment.

Where to bet: Luis Robert Jr. winner | +550 at Caesars Sportsbook

MLB Home Run Derby Predictions: Prop Bets

Here are Props.com’s staff Home Run Derby predictions when it comes to prop bets, matchup plays, and home run distance bets.

Under 168.5 Total HR in First Round (-115)

Analyst: Matt LaMarca

Betting the under on the Home Run Derby might be the least fun bet imaginable. It’d be like rooting for guys to miss dunks in the dunk contest or fading Joey Chesnut on the Fourth of July. Ultimately, it’s borderline un-American.

Still, I can’t help but feel like this number is too high. There were 169 homers hit in the first round of the Derby last year, but that was with J-Rod putting up 32. Corey Seager was the only other batter to put up more than 20, so they did a lot of the heavy lifting. The 2021 Derby was at Coors Field, which is akin to hitting on the moon, so I’m throwing out the results there. Prior to that, we had less than 168.5 homers in five straight years.

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The format is not conducive to big totals. The underdog typically hits first – the participants are seeded according to the number of homers they hit in the regular season – so the favorite only needs to beat that total by one to advance. That means that big performances like J-Rod in 2022 only really come when the underdog puts up a big score.

Rodriguez will be in that role again in 2023, and he and Alonso can definitely light up their matchup. However, guys like Mookie Betts and Adley Rutschman should bring down theirs. While both players are excellent, they’re not typically big homer threats. Betts ranks in the 60th percentile for max exit velocity, while Rutschman is in the 71st. If one of those guys disappoints, it’s going to be tough for the rest of the field to make up the difference.

Where to bet: Under 168.5 First Round homers | -115 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Randy Arozarena Round 1 Winner vs. Adolis Garcia (+130)

Analyst: Josh Shepardson

Garcia won’t be a pushover. However, Arozarena should probably be the favorite. So, getting plus odds on Arozarena winning his first-round matchup is exciting. Arozarena’s 97.1 mph average FB/LD exit velocity isn’t just tied with Vladito’s for the highest in the Home Run Derby field. It’s also tied for the 17th-highest mark among qualified hitters in 2023.

Meanwhile, Garcia’s 95.7 mph FB/LD average exit velocity is tied for 48th among qualified hitters. While the difference might not seem significant, the best performers in recent Home Run Derby fields have been Statcast darlings. And, intuitively, that makes sense. The hitters don’t benefit from high-velocity hurlers giving them upper-90 mph heat to turn around. So, they have to generate all the power.

Admittedly, I’d much rather have Arozarena against Robert or Rutschman. Still, if the sportsbooks offer live odds on the second-round matchups, I’ll excitedly bet on the winner of this matchup against Robert or Rutschman.

Where to bet: Arozarena wins Round 1 vs. Garcia | +130 at Ceasars Sportsbook

Longest Home Run under 488.5 (-112)

Analyst: John Supowitz

While the number of home runs is the main focus of the derby, the distance covered is always the most exciting aspect. Everyone wants to witness moon shots soaring through the Seattle night sky, and hitting two 440-footers to gain extra time is certainly appealing.

The total distance set for this contest is quite high. Excluding the 2021 home run derby, which took place in the thin air of Denver, we haven’t seen anyone surpass 490 feet since Aaron Judge accomplished it four times in 2017. Juan Soto came closest last year with a 480-foot home run.

Among the contestants, Julio Rodriguez holds the record for the longest home run this season at 454 feet. It’s advisable to bet on the under.

Where to bet: Longest HR Under 488.5 ft | -112 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Julio Rodriguez Longest Home Run (+700)

Analyst: Justin Bales

As you can probably tell from the odds, this isn’t a play that I believe is extremely obvious. Instead, it’s a value play. There isn’t really any reason that Rodriguez should be this far behind the other competitors in the Home Run Derby. 

Rodriguez quietly leads the competitors in max home run length this season. His farthest home run sits at 454 feet, and he was the only competitor to hit one over 450 feet. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Luis Robert both hit one 450 feet with Pete Alonso coming in at 448 feet. 

The big difference between the four players? Rodriguez can be bet at +700 while the next best odds are Luis Robert at +350. Granted, I don’t believe that Rodriguez should be the favorite here, but he should be drastically closer than +700.

Where to bet: Julio Rodriguez longest HR | +700 at Caesars Sportsbook

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