Each week, Props.com will select five intriguing player and/or team NBA prop bets from a busy night of league action, and subsequently do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are some interesting props for Monday’s slate of nine NBA games.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings and updated as of 3 p.m. ET on Oct. 25.
Milwaukee Bucks PF Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Prop: Over/Under 12.5 rebounds (at Indiana)
The Odds: Yes +120 / No -150
In his last four complete seasons (2017-21), Antetokounmpo dominated the boards out of the gate, averaging 12.6 per game in his first six contests. So far this season, however, Antetokounmpo has grabbed a mere 10.7 rebounds per game, with his numbers trending downward in each outing (14, 10, and 8).
Historically speaking, though, Giannis should be in range of this prop tonight, as he’s yanked down 12 or more rebounds in seven straight games against the Pacers, getting 13-plus in five of those contests.
*Looking for more NBA Props on Monday? Check out our Top 5 NBA Picks to place on Underdog Fantasy or your favorite legal sportsbook.
Boston Celtics
The Prop: Celtics Over/Under 111.5 total points (at Charlotte)
The Odds: Yes -110 / No -120
The Celtics (1-2) have experienced a spectrum of scoring thresholds in just three games. Two days after tallying 134 points on Opening Night (a double-overtime loss to the Knicks), Boston scraped the proverbial bottom in a 115-83 home loss to the Raptors.
The Hornets are off to their first 3-0 start in franchise history, and they’ve done it mostly by relying on an offense that ranks fifth overall at 119.0 points per game. (Defensively, Charlotte has yielded 122, 112, and 95 points.)
Will Charlotte’s up-tempo attack compel Boston to match the fast pace? Charting last season’s three head-to-head encounters, the winning club averaged 120.3 points per game. Keep in mind, however, that neither Boston (16th overall) nor Charlotte (23rd overall) cracked the top 15 in scoring offense last season.
Atlanta Hawks PG Trae Young
The Prop: Over/Under 25.5 points (vs. Detroit)
The Odds: Yes -125 / No +105
After averaging 27.3 points per game last season, Young is off to a slow start, putting up just 19 and 24 in Atlanta’s first two games.
A possible explanation: A lack of free-throw attempts (just 12 in two games). Last year, when Young scored 29 and 38 points in two games against Detroit, he buried 28 of 34 free throws. That was a time when NBA referees often bailed out crafty playmakers who could feign being in “the act of shooting” while drawing incidental contact.
However, the league tweaked its act-of-shooting rulings during the offseason, making it harder for those playmakers to draw questionable shooting fouls. So while Young is 12-for-12 from the charity stripe, his lack of attempts is clearly affecting his scoring output.
Another contributing factor: Young, who tossed up 10-plus three-point attempts in eight of his final 10 regular-season games last year, has fired just 11 shots from beyond the arc this season (making only three).
Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors
The Prop: Over/Under 211.5 combined points
The Odds: Yes -110 / No -110
Much like Boston, the Bulls (3-0) have ridden the scoring roller coaster thus far, netting 94, 128, and 97 points in three convincing wins. Chicago also ranks second overall in scoring defense, yielding only 94.0 points per game. However, Chicago’s two opponents— Detroit (twice) and New Orleans—own a combined record of 0-5.
The Raptors also have been all over the scoring map, averaging only 89 points in their two home defeats … but racking up 115 points in a 32-point road win over the Celtics.
It’s obviously a small sample size, but Toronto is shooting a woeful 35.1 percent from the field. Keep in mind that the Raptors last season didn’t play a game in Canada because of COVID-19 restrictions—is it possible that it will take some time for them to get re-acclimated to their home environment? Time will tell, but this much we do know: Scottie Barnes, a rookie who was a freshman at Florida State last fall is Toronto’s leading scorer at a meager 18.0 points per game.
Nuggets C Nikola Jokić
The Prop: Over/Under 6.5 assists (vs. Cleveland)
The Odds: Yes -120 / No +100
The reigning NBA MVP is off to a sluggish start from an assists perspective, averaging just 4.5 dimes per game, a far cry from his career-best 8.3 average in 2020-21. In fact, he opened last season by notching notched seven or more assists in 10 of his first 13 games, getting to double-digit assists nine times during that span.
Jokić collected double-digit dimes in each of his two meetings with the Cavaliers last season (22 assists in all). He also averaged 6.57 assists in his final seven regular-season home outings — right on par with Monday’s projection.