The First Four of the 2023 NCAA Tournament begins on Tuesday, March 14 with a pair of games. The most intriguing contest of the night is the battle for the No. 11 seed with Mississippi State taking on Pittsburgh. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:10 pm ET while airing on truTV. Mississippi State enters this game as 2.5-point favorites with the total set at 133.5. How will this one play out? Let’s dive into the Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh predictions below.
Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh Odds
- Spread: Mississippi State -2.5
- Total: 133.5
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. New to FanDuel? Check out our FanDuel Sportsbook Review to find out how to redeem a $1,000 risk-free bet!
Game Info
- Date: Tuesday, Mar. 14
- Time: 9:10 pm ET
- Location: UD Arena, Dayton, OH
- TV: truTV
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Mississippi State Betting Trends
- Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Bulldogs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
- Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 neutral site games.
Pittsburgh Betting Trends
- Panthers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
- Panthers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 neutral site games.
Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh Predictions
This is a matchup of offense vs. defense. Pittsburgh ranks 24th in offensive efficiency (per KenPom.com) and 142nd in defense. On the flip side, Mississippi State is sixth overall in defense and 164th in offensive efficiency. So what gives?
Looking closer at the numbers, it feels like Pittsburgh has the advantage in this game. Mississippi State ranks 257th in turnover rate and 347th in free throw percentage. That’s not a recipe for success in these tight NCAA Tournament games. Despite going against a tough defense, the Panthers have several players who can get hot and negate that advantage for Mississippi State.
The Panthers are much better at controlling the ball as well, which could be significant down the stretch. Simply put, Mississippi State might not be able to keep up in this game. Take the underdog here!
The Pick: Pittsburgh +2.5 | -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook