It’s the final game of Week 7, and Monday night presents your final opportunity to score on some great NFL player props.
We have the Saints traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in this primetime showdown. Due to the Seattle injury situation, New Orleans is listed as a 4.5 point road favorite.
Let’s jump into some of the best prop betting opportunities of this game.
Jameis Winston – Over 201.5 Passing Yards
At first glance, this may seem like a risky bet to make. Jameis Winston has only gone over 200 yards twice this season while failing to even break 150 yards in each of the other three games.
But those other three games were the bizarre blowout against Green Bay, which suppressed his numbers. Then he took on two good defenses in Carolina and New England. Meanwhile, his two other games – 226 yards vs. the Giants and 279 yards at Washington – came most recently and against far worse defenses.
Seattle is another not-great defense primed to give up yards through the air. They have given up an average of 292 passing yards per game, which ranks 28th in the NFL, and if they were to hold Winston to 201 yards or less, it would be the first time they’ve done that all season.
Bet this over.
D.K. Metcalf – Under 75.5 Receiving Yards
Geno Smith was serviceable against the Steelers and almost had Seattle pulling off the upset. But this is a run-first team, even with Russell Wilson, and that means against the Saints, they will focus on their ground game even more.
The Seattle passing game thrives on deep balls from Wilson and deep routes from D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Both guys will play much closer to the line of scrimmage with Geno at quarterback, and this will particularly affect the yardage total of Metcalf.
He had just 58 yards last week against Pittsburgh and just 65 two weeks ago against the 49ers. Add in the fact that the Saints held Terry McLaurin to just 46 yards, Davante Adams to just 56 yards, and Robby Anderson to just 38 yards, and you can see that the Saints defense does a fine job against top-flight wide receivers.
At 65.5 yards, the Lockett over/under is a tough call. At 75.5 yards, taking the under on Metcalf is easily the better bet.
Alvin Kamara – Over 78.5 Rushing Yards
Along with Jameis Winston hitting his passing yards over, look for Alvin Kamara to do the same running the ball. Rain is in the forecast for Monday night, which of course it is in Seattle. And Kamara has proven to be a solid back in the rain.
The Seahawks also have been giving up nearly 141 yards rushing per game and have given up more than 80 yards rushing to Najee Harris, Darrell Henderson, Trey Sermon, Alexander Mattison, and Derrick Henry.
Along with those five backs to have good games on the ground against Seattle, add Kamara’s name. In two of his last three games, he has easily gone over 78 yards rushing – including 120 yards against the Giants – and he will make it three of four games on Monday night.
The over on Kamara is a good bet.