The Bengals and Chiefs are playing in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game. It’s also a rematch from this regular season. Cincinnati has had the better of the Chiefs, and their two biggest superstars have inviting overs. On the flip side, a running back on the pass-happy Chiefs has a nifty under. Let’s hop into the Chiefs vs. Bengals player props below.
Chiefs vs. Bengals Player Props: AFC Championship
For a full list of Chiefs vs. Bengals player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
Jerick McKinnon Under 28.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Jerick McKinnon’s rushing yardage prop is eye-catchingly high. No, a 28.5-yard rushing prop isn’t high for many backs, but McKinnon’s Kansas City’s secondary runner and top pass-catching back in their pass-heavy offense.
In Kansas City’s previous five games, Isiah Pacheco led the backfield in carries (58), McKinnon was second (30), and Ronald Jones (13) chipped in. McKinnon’s role hasn’t been fruitful for rushing yards. McKinnon has averaged 17.6 rushing yards per game, had a median of 12 rushing yards, and had more than 28.5 rushing yards only three times in 18 games this season.
He has a challenging matchup this week, too. First, according to Football Outsiders, Cincinnati is fourth in rush defense DVOA since Week 14. Second, running backs have averaged only 3.91 yards per carry against the Bengals this year. Third, running backs have plummeted to only 3.44 yards per carry against Cincinnati since Week 14. At Cinci’s stingy yards per carry allowed to running backs lately, McKinnon would need nine attempts to surpass his prop of 28.5 rushing yards. The veteran running back had at least nine attempts only twice this year. Thus, I love McKinnon’s under for 28.5 rushing yards.
Where to bet: Jerick McKinnon Under 28.5 Rushing Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Joe Burow Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Joe Burrow isn’t one of the NFL’s premier dual-threat quarterbacks. Still, he’s not a slouch. Per Pro-Football-Reference, Burrow averaged a career-high 16.1 rushing yards per game this year. However, he had more than 17.5 rushing yards seven times this season, including rumbling for 31 yards against the Bills last week and 46 against the Chiefs in Week 13. Burrow also scampered for 25 yards against Kansas City in the playoffs last year.
Burrow has run well against the Chiefs. Moreover, Kansas City’s defense has struggled mightily to bottle up quarterbacks on the ground. The Chiefs have allowed 34.2 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks since Week 14. In their last six contests, they also allowed five instances of a quarterback rushing for more than 17.5 yards.
Burrow will likely leave it all on the field in a must-win game. Add Kansas City’s ineptitude to contain quarterbacks as runners, and Burrow’s over for 17.5 rushing yards is an excellent bet.
Where to bet: Joe Burrow Over 17.5 Rushing Yards | -111 at Caesars Sportsbook
Ja’Marr Chase Over 83.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Ja’Marr Chase is a monster and the premier target earner on the Bengals. Since Hayden Hurst returned to bring Cinci’s pass-catching corps to total health in Week 18, Chase has amassed a gaudy 29.1% Target Share.
He also went over 83.5 receiving yards in two of those three contests. Further, Chase had more than 83.5 receiving yards in four of seven contests since returning from a hip injury and had 132 and 130 receiving yards in his final two games before sitting out with his injury. So, the second-year receiver had more than 83.5 receiving yards in six of his last nine games, which was quite nice.
Chase has also been a thorn in the side of the Chiefs. He’s faced them three times in his young career, posting 266, 54, and 97 receiving yards against them. Chase’s 97-yard effort was in his first game back from his hip injury this year.
The matchup is tantalizing, too. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have allowed the third-most receiving yards per game (81.2) to No. 1 wide receivers. Obviously, 83.5 receiving yards is a high bar to clear, but Chase is capable against Kansas City’s overmatched secondary.
Where to bet: Ja’Marr Chase Over 83.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook