The 49ers steamrolled the Seahawks last Saturday. Then, the Cowboys unceremoniously thumped Tom Brady and the Bucs on Monday. Dallas must play on a shorter week and on the road against San Francisco’s elite defense. Could that lead to some mistakes? One of the player props is betting on a Cowboy making an error. Another is betting on a dusted veteran going under one of his props. Finally, an electrifying receiver can eat in a juicy matchup. Let’s dive into the Cowboys vs. 49ers player props below.
Cowboys vs. 49ers Player Props: Divisional Round Sunday
For a full list of Cowboys vs. 49ers player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
Dak Prescott Over 0.5 Interceptions (-150)
Dak Prescott was lights out last week. However, the showing doesn’t erase his errors this season. First, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Prescott was tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (15) and had the highest interception rate (3.8%). Second, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he had the seventh-highest turnover-worthy-play rate (3.7 TWP%) out of 24 quarterbacks who dropped back at least 400 times this year.
Prescott also spread his picks and blunders across many games. He tossed an interception in 10 of 13 games and snapped a seven-game streak of throwing an interception last week. Additionally, Prescott had a turnover-worthy play in 10 of 13 games.
On the flip side, the 49ers did an excellent job of forcing interceptions. Since their bye in Week 9, San Francisco has recorded at least one interception in seven of 10 games. The 49ers are favored. Thus, the Cowboys should be forced to air it out and play catch up. The 49ers will have opportunities to pick off Prescott if he’s forced into catch-up mode. As a result, I love taking Prescott over 0.5 interceptions at the reasonable -150 line on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Where to bet: Dak Prescott Over 0.5 Interceptions | -150 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ezekiel Elliott Under 5.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Ezekiel Elliott is a shell of what he once was. He also shares the backfield with a dynamic teammate, Tony Pollard. So the Cowboys have understandably increased Pollard’s workload this year.
Specifically, according to PFF, Zeke ran 92 routes, and Pollard ran 112 in the last six games the two have played together. Pollard significantly outperformed Elliott as a receiver and runner. The former is more important for this bet, though.
Pollard is likely to soak up pass-catching work if the Cowboys have to play from behind. Additionally, Zeke might need more than one catch to hit his low receiving yardage prop. According to The 33rd Team and data from Sports Info Solutions, San Francisco’s allowed the 10th-fewest yards per reception (6.4) to running backs since Week 13. Moreover, they’ve allowed the second-fewest yards per reception (6.1) to them during the 2022 campaign.
Finally, and most importantly, Zeke’s been ineffective as a receiver. The veteran running back had under 5.5 receiving yards 10 times in 16 games and had a median of 4.0 receiving yards. The low yardage total shouldn’t dissuade gamblers from betting on Zeke’s under. It’s low for a good reason, and I’m delighted to be on it.
Where to bet: Ezekiel Elliott Under 5.5 Receiving Yards | -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Deebo Samuel Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Dallas’s pass defense is trash. According to Football Outsiders, the Cowboys are 25th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, they’ve allowed 55.1 receiving yards per game to No. 1 wideouts and 63.7 receiving yards per game to No. 2 wide receivers.
And since Dallas’s bye in Week 9, they’ve allowed 15 wide receivers to eclipse 54.5 receiving yards in 10 games. Thus, there’s enough meat on the bone for Samuel to surpass 54.5 receiving yards, even if Brandon Aiyuk barbecues the Cowboys.
Samuel went over 54.5 receiving yards only six times in 14 games this year. Fortunately, he had a season-high 133 receiving yards last week. Last week was also Samuel’s second time besting 54.5 receiving yards in four games he’s played with Brock Purdy since Mr. Irrelevant was pushed to the top of the depth chart.
Finally, Samuel has the explosiveness and matchup to go over 54.5 receiving yards on as little as one reception. The dynamic wideout had a 57-yard reception this year, and the Cowboys have allowed three receivers to gain at least 55 receiving yards on a play this season. I don’t expect Samuel to hit his prop on one play, but it’s a hell of a potential out for hitting his over.
Where to bet: Deebo Samuel Over 54.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
