Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Thursday Night Football of Week 7.
Melvin Gordon OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards
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In the second round of this year’s draft, the Broncos traded up to select a tackle-beaking machine, Javonte Williams. Nonetheless, Melvin Gordon hasn’t rolled over for the incoming rookie back. In fact, the veteran has a playing-time edge over the rookie, playing 54% of the snaps compared to 45%, per FantasyPros.
In addition to a playing time edge, Gordon holds a decided advantage in routes. According to Pro Football Focus, Williams has run 88 routes, and Gordon has run 125. The 28-year-old back has turned his passing-game usage into 2.2 receptions for 19.8 receiving yards per game. Further, he’s fallen short of 13 receiving yards in only two of six games.
Also, despite having a head coach, Vic Fangio, with a defensive background as a former defensive coordinator, they’re deploying a pass-happy offense this year. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Broncos pass at the sixth-highest rate (62%).
While they’re already a pass-leaning offense, they have further incentive to continue airing it out when in a neutral game script this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns rank third in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and 20th in pass defense DVOA. Therefore, the path to least resistance should be through the air.
Finally, Bet Prep supports my endorsement for Gordon going over 12.5 receiving yards. They project him for 13.03 receiving yards.
Noah Fant OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards
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Let’s piggyback on Denver’s passing tendency and more favorable matchup through the air than on the ground by hopping on Noah Fant’s receiving yardage as well. Unfortunately, it hasn’t been smooth sailing for Fant this season.
He’s recorded 33 receiving yards or fewer in three games. On the flip side, he’s tallied 46 receiving yards or more three times, including in two of his last three games. Last week, he erupted for season-highs in targets (11), receptions (nine), and receiving yards (97).
Obviously, I love the production in his last game. Moving beyond the box score generates more reason for optimism, though. According to Pro Football Focus, his 85 routes are the second-most among tight ends during the previous two weeks.
Finally, I’m in alignment with Bet Prep again. They project him for 47.17 receiving yards against the Browns. So, let’s lock in another over for our Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks.
Case Keenum OVER 0.5 Interceptions
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Case Keenum is thrust into starting quarterback duty this week with Baker Mayfield out. Unfortunately, he might not have his full complement of weapons to work with. Odell Beckham Jr. hasn’t practiced this week . So, I’m leaning toward him missing this one based on the information at hand. However, he might get Jarvis Landry back from the injured reserve.
Regardless, it’s reasonable to wonder if Landry will be eased back into action if he is activated from injured reserve. If Keenum’s without both wideouts, the sledding will be extremely tough. Still, even if both of his top wideouts suit up, I lean toward him throwing at least one interception.
Keenum has thrown only 13 passes since the start of 2020. When we last saw him take meaningful snaps in 2019, he threw five interceptions in his eight starts and six interceptions on 247 pass attempts in 10 games played. In 16 starts in 2018, he chucked 15 interceptions.
Keenum’s not a stranger to putting the ball in harm’s way. According to Pro Football Focus, among 32 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks in 2019, Keenum’s 4.1% turnover-worthy-play rate was the seventh-highest mark. Out of 33 quarterbacks who dropped back at least 250 times in 2018, Keenum’s 3.7% turnover-worthy-play rate tied for the 11th-highest mark.
Finally, with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt ruled out, the running game might struggle to gain traction. If struggles on the ground come to fruition, Keenum will be in an even more disadvantageous position, enhancing his odds of tossing an interception. Denver’s defense has been inconsistent this year, but I expect Fangio to make life difficult for Keenum. So, I’m taking the over on 0.5 interceptions for the backup quarterback who’s forced to start this week.