Week 6 comes to a close with a Monday Night Football showdown between the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills and AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans. This awards us one more chance to make some dough correctly selecting Underdog Fantasy NFL picks. First, however, if you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, have no fear.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Monday Night Football of Week 6.
Josh Allen MINUS 51.5 Passing Yards Vs. Ryan Tannehill
Josh Allen leads a pass-heavy offense, and Ryan Tannehill is attached to an offense that essentially runs through superstar running back Derrick Henry. To that point, according to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Bills are passing at the eighth-highest rate (61%, above the league average of 58%). Comparatively, the Titans are passing at the sixth-lowest percentage (53%). Further, the Bills being favored doesn’t alarm me, as they’re still passing at a 52% (50% is the league average) clip when leading by four or more points.
In addition to a stark contrast in offensive philosophy aiding Allen’s cause to pass for significantly more yards than Tannehill, there’s a sizable advantage for Allen in the matchup. According to Football Outsiders, the Bills rank first in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and the Titans rank 25th in pass defense DVOA. Also, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bills have yielded the fewest passing yards per game (173.4), and the Titans have coughed up the 10th-most passing yards per game (264.6).
While laying 51.5 passing yards might feel uncomfortable, take solace in Bet Prep supporting my pick as well. They project Tannehill for 207.93 passing yards and Allen for 271.05 passing yards.
Anthony Firkser OVER 26.5 Receiving Yards
When I sat down to write this piece, Underdog Fantasy offered a 2.5 receptions option for Anthony Firkser. If that pick is made available again, I prefer Firkser over 2.5 receptions instead of over 26.5 receiving yards. Nevertheless, I like both overs.
Unfortunately, Firkser’s fallen short of 27 yards in two of three games played. Still, he set a season-high with 33 yards last week. Also, A.J. Brown was added to the injury report over the weekend with an illness, casting some doubt on his availability as I write. On the other hand, Julio Jones is returning from his injury, so there’s a chance he’s eased back into a heavy workload. In other words, Firkser might be needed if the passing attack, especially if the game goes according to the spread and the Titans have to play catch-up.
Finally, I view this as a good theoretical fit for Firkser. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Bills have coughed up the lowest average explosive pass rate (four percent). Buffalo’s stinginess with allowing explosive pass plays will make it difficult for vertical threats Brown and Jones. According to Pro Football Focus, they have an average depth of target of 14.7 yards and 13.1 yards, respectively. Meanwhile, Firkser has an average depth of target of 6.8 yards. Thus, I expect him to be involved enough to surpass 26.5 receiving yards.
Emmanuel Sanders OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards
The Bills are getting everything they could have hoped for from Emmanuel Sanders when they signed him in the offseason. According to Pro Football Focus, he leads the team in routes (179). Manny’s also second on the team with 64.4 receiving yards per game.
Sanders is playing efficient football as a vertical option in the passing attack, which should allow him to thrive against the Titans. Sanders is averaging 10.4 yards per target with an average depth of target of 17.4 yards downfield.
Meanwhile, the Titans are hemorrhaging explosive pass plays, allowing the fifth-highest average explosive pass rate (11%). Finally, according to Pro-Football-Reference, they’ve ceded the sixth-most receiving yards (1,122) to wideouts at a robust 15.16 yards per reception.
As a result, I love Sanders’ receiving yards over, and Bet Prep slightly leans in that direction as well, projecting 59.57 receiving yards.
