For the second straight week, the NFL heads across the pond to London. The Jaguars and Dolphins play abroad, and we have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks to get in on the action for Sunday morning’s contest. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for the Sunday morning game in London.
James Robinson MINUS 28.5 Rushing Yards Vs. Myles Gaskin
First, let’s start with the bad news if you’re joining me with this pick. Unfortunately, the Jaguars are 2.5-point underdogs. So, there’s some potential they’ll end up in a negative game script and need to air it out. Nevertheless, the spread is less than a field, so I’m expecting the Jaguars to spend most of the game in a neutral game script.
If my expectations come to fruition, they’re positioned to lean on James Robinson against Miami’s suspect run defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins rank 21st in run defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Digging deeper, they’ve been especially bad against running backs, yielding the fifth-most rushing yards (604) to them at 4.54 yards per rush attempt, per Pro-Football-Reference. Comparatively, the Jaguars have coughed up 497 rushing yards to running backs at 3.71 yards per rush attempt.
My selection for J-Rob to rush for 28.5 more rushing yards than Gaskin is also based on a talent and usage discrepancy. The second-year back leads the Jaguars running backs with 67 rush attempts for 77.4 rushing yards per game, and Carlos Hyde is second with only 24 rush attempts for 27.0 rushing yards per game. In addition, Robinson has rushed for 88 yards, 78 yards, and 149 yards over the last three weeks, rounding into superb form in the process.
Meanwhile, Gaskin has toted the rock only 34 times for 26.2 rushing yards per game, and Malcolm Brown nips at his heels with 25 carries for 18.2 rushing yards per game. The former is a great pass-catching back. However, Miami’s prone to splitting up their carry workload between Gaskin, Brown, and even Salvon Ahmed.
Therefore, I’ll take the back in the less crowded backfield to trounce the three-way committee back in rushing yards. Thankfully, Bet Prep agrees, projecting Robinson for 81.89 rushing yards and projecting Gaskin for only 42.04 rushing yards.
Editor’s Note: Want more Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks? Check out Josh’s top five plays for Sunday’s main slate.
Mike Gesicki OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards
Tua Tagovailoa returns for the Dolphins this week. Unfortunately, he could not connect with Mike Gesicki on two targets in his only full, healthy game as a starter this year in Week 1. However, we have evidence of a burgeoning connection from last year. Tagovailoa attempted 290 passes last year, directing 43 for 29 completions and 308 yards to Gesicki. The pass-catching tight end (who’s more like a receiver, there’s more on that to come) and 29 receptions led on Tua’s passes last year led the way.
I promised more on Gesicki basically being a wide receiver, and the following backs my assertion. According to Pro Football Focus, Gesicki has played 170 passing snaps, run 154 routes, and aligned inline only nine times. So, as I said, he’s basically a jumbo wideout.
The team also needs contributors in the passing game with Will Fuller on injured reserve, and DeVante Parker ruled out. Also, the matchup is Charmin-soft for Gesicki. Football Outsiders ranks the Jags dead last in pass defense DVOA. Factoring in everything, Bet Prep projects Gesicki to surpass his yardage total with a projection of 48.79 receiving yards.
Marvin Jones UNDER 60.5 Receiving Yards
The season got off to a fast start for Marvin Jones. Through three games, he tallied receiving yardage totals of 77, 55, and 62. However, over the last two weeks, he’s amassed yardage totals of 24 and 25. More alarmingly for his production, he’s tallied only nine targets and four receptions over the last two weeks combined.
Over the last two weeks, Jones still leads the team in passing snaps (66) and routes (59), but four others have run 40 or more routes, and Jamal Agnew jumped into the scene last week. Additionally, Jones’ seven targets are only fifth on the team during those contests.
Thus, Trevor Lawrence appears to be spreading the ball all over the place. And, since he’s playing better lately, I don’t see a reason for him to shift gears to locking in on Jones.
Also of note, Jacksonville has turned into a run-heavy team in neutral game scripts. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranged from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points in Week 4 and Week 5, the Jaguars have passed at the third-lowest percentage (45%, a whopping 10% lower than the league average).
Rounding things out, Bet Prep aligns with my expectations again. They project Jones for only 54.94 receiving yards this week.
