Over the past 20 games, Derrick Henry has hit the over on this NFL player prop in exactly 50% of games, meaning that this line probably makes a bit of sense. When we talk about mean or average, Henry averages much higher than 114.5 yards per game, but this is because he has massive games, typically with long runs within those big games.
More Options For Tennessee?
When we look at the Titans’ offense this week, we expect to get AJ Brown back, as he was limited on Wednesday and a full participant in practice on Thursday, something he wouldn’t even normally do on Thursdays if he was fully healthy. Julio Jones hasn’t practiced, and his status is unknown.
Matchup Against Jacksonville
Against the Jags, I think that we will see the Titans be a bit more pass-heavy than they usually would be in this assumed game script. The Jaguars have constantly been trailing in most games, and they haven’t won a single game yet.
The Jags are very willing to go into deep water when trailing and go bombs away and play a relatively desperate form of football in catchup mode. This often results in quicker possessions but a shorter field position for the opponent. This is a net negative for Henry in this spot.
Even more interesting with the matchup is the effectiveness against the run that the Jags have shown. No one has really hit them for a big gain, and no running back has really ended with even their average yards per carry against this Jags team given normal usage. While I don’t think that this is anywhere near the best run defense in the NFL, I do think that they’re doing a very good job at limiting the run and particularly the big run.
The Bottom Line
The key for Henry in this matchup is that he must either get one big run or get 28+ touches in a game where they are in control. I prefer the under here on this NFL player prop because the Jags offense DOES like to attack the weaknesses of the Titans’ defense, and I think that they could have an early lead. I also think that Henry will struggle to get that 50-yarder in this matchup.
