It’s only a week or so since Circa Sports posted Tyson Fury vs. Deontay Wilder odds for the third clash between these heavyweight boxers. But there’s been plenty of action in that time, mostly on the underdog.
Saturday night’s bout at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas isn’t exactly a rubber match. The first meeting in December 2018 at Staples Center ended in a draw, and Fury took the February 2020 rematch on a seventh-round technical knockout at Vegas’ MGM Grand Garden.
Circa Sports oddsmaker Nick Kalikas provided insights on Fury vs. Wilder 3 odds and action. Check back right up until Saturday’s opening bell for additional updates.
Fury Vs Wilder 3 Betting Action
UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: BetMGM Nevada has toggled Fury between -280 and -290, and the champion is currently -280, with Wilder a +230 underdog. And the money is nonstop on Wilder.
“This fight has been crazy. It’s a seven-figure decision, and we need the favorite bad,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said. “Everybody who bets 50 to 100 bucks is on Wilder, but it’s shocking how many 5-dimer ($5,000) and 10-dimer ($10,000) bets are on Wilder. And there are multiple five-figure bets on Wilder. Tickets are 5/1 and money approaching 5/1 in favor of Wilder.”
UPDATE 9:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: As the opening bell looms for this heavyweight title bout, WynnBet has Fury as a -300 favorite and Wilder a +240 underdog. But bettors are all over the ‘dog on the two-way moneyline, with Wilder attracting nearly 89% of tickets and money.
“There is love for Wilder everywhere coming into the third bout between these two heavyweights, which is no surprise to us,” WynnBet junior trader Patrick Wall told Props. “The average bettor is not looking to risk $300 to win $100. In my opinion, Fury won the first bout that resulted in a draw, and he officially won the second when Wilder’s corner threw in the towel.
“If Wilder is going to win this fight, he has to do it early with the knockout power we have seen in the past.”
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Tyson Fury opened a -270 favorite at TwinSpires and got out to -305 this afternoon, with Deontay Wilder a +225 underdog. Tickets are running 2/1 and money 3/1 on the underdog.
“We have a big liability on Wilder. We’ll be big Fury fans tonight,” Twinspires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. “We also want to avoid Wilder ending this fight in the 12th round, which we have priced at +6,600.”
UPDATE NOON ET SATURDAY: As Kalikas predicted midweek, the weekend has brought sharp money on the favorite at Circa Sports. On Thursday morning, the moneyline was at Fury -265/Wilder +225. By Friday afternoon, Fury was up to a -285 favorite, and the fight is now at Fury -290/Wilder +245.
“We’re getting some larger sharp-action bets Fury’s way. Ticket count still heavier on Wilder, but now overall, we are more balanced on straight bets,” Kalikas said, who noted he still expects the book to need Fury tonight.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The Circa risk room didn’t post this bout until Oct. 1, and the opening price didn’t last long. Kalikas pegged Fury a -300 favorite and Wilder a +255 underdog, but after a quick reassessment decided to adjust down to Fury -265/Wilder +225.
“We adjusted before any action came in. Then we still got ‘dog action,” Kalikas said, while noting the odds remain -265/+225. “We’re heavy on straight bets with Wilder, not seeing much resistance yet, so it was a good call to lower the odds, because we’re getting so many straight bets on the ‘dog.
“Ticket count is pretty lopsided toward Wilder. The only thing we’re seeing on the favorite is parlays on Fury.”
And that’s despite, for the moment, Circa having the shortest price in the market on the favorite. But Kalikas anticipates this number going lower, so Fury bettors likely are biding their time.
“There were max bets from sharps, so public and sharp takers on Wilder early on,” Kalikas said. “I think we’ll see a lot more public action come in on Wilder, so I’m expecting the line to drop more. We might see some sharper action come in late and take the chalk. Hopefully, we can have a little balance by the time the fight goes off.”
However, Kalikas expects his book will have a rooting interest: “We’ll probably need Fury at post time.”
Fury Vs Wilder 3 Prop Bets
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SATURDAY: At TwinSpires, very few customers expect this fight to sniff a full 12 rounds tonight. The prop on whether the matchup goes to the judges’ decision is at Yes +215/No -305, and despite the heavy price, No is landing 80% of tickets and 88% of money. The Yes on Fury to be knocked down, at +140, is also a popular play.
UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY: For a fight of this magnitude, prop bets will be popular, as well. With the heavyweight clash two days out, though, bettors are mostly gravitating to two options on Circa’s Fury vs Wilder odds board, both among the method-of-victory markets.
“They’re on Wilder by knockout, and we’ve taken some bites on Fury by knockout, as well,” Kalikas said. “They’re betting knockouts on both fighters, rather than by decision, at least early on.”
As of Thursday afternoon, Fury winning by knockout/technical knockout/disqualification was nearly a pick ’em at Circa, with Yes at -105 and No a slim -115 chalk. Wilder by KO/TKO/DQ had a more attractive price of Yes +310, while No was a -375 favorite.
Fury by decision was at Yes +285/No -340, and Wilder by decision was at a hefty Yes +1,750/No -3,650, demonstrating oddsmakers’ belief that the only way the underdog gets this done Saturday night is by KO/TKO/DQ.
If you’re looking to take a flier on these two fighting to a draw for the second time in three bouts, Circa has Yes at +2,300 and No -5,400.
