The Los Angeles Dodgers survived the NL Wild Card Game against the St. Louis Cardinals, winning 3-1 on Chris Taylor’s walk-off two-run bomb in the bottom of the ninth inning Wednesday night. Now the Dodgers face the archrival San Francisco Giants in the National League Division Series.
The Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers got the easier path, winning their respective division to set up the second NLDS matchup
Props.com takes a look at NLDS odds and provides analysis on each series. For a complete ALDS betting breakdown, check out this article.
Here are the composite schedules for the Giants-Dodgers and Brewers-Braves series.
Odds via BetMGM except where indicated, and updated as of noon ET Oct. 7.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles: 106-56, won NL Wild Card
San Francisco: 107-55, won NL West
Season Series: Giants won, 10-9
NLDS Betting Odds: Dodgers -155 / Giants +130
— The Dodgers beat the Cardinals 3-1 in Wednesday’s NL Wild Card Game. It’s hardly a surprise that Los Angeles Dodgers is favored to win this series, despite finishing a game behind the Giants in the NL West. Given its league-leading payroll (north of $267 million), impressive depth, and a hefty collection of star playmakers, Los Angeles has been the odds-on choice all season to repeat as World Series champion.
— The series price is much closer than it likely would’ve been in August. L.A. recently lost Max Muncy (36 HRs, 94 RBIs, 95 runs this season) and three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw (3.55 ERA, 144/21 K-BB rate) to injuries. Kershaw’s loss ostensibly reduces the Dodgers’ starting rotation to Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, and NL Cy Young hopeful Max Scherzer, who likely won’t take the mound until Game 3 of the NLDS after starting in the Wild Card Game.
— The Dodgers advancing in four games is seen as the most likely result at BetMGM. Los Angeles is +275 to land a 3-1 series victory, +375 to win in five, and +450 to get a three-game sweep. On the flip side, San Francisco is +400 to win in five games, +500 to win in four, and +900 to sweep.
— The Giants are WynnBet’s largest liability to win the World Series. On opening day, San Francisco was +10,000 (100/1), and bettors jumped on the Giants early and often during their sterling season. San Fran’s odds dropped significantly throughout the season, and the Giants are now the +600 co-third choice with Tampa Bay, trailing L.A. (+250) and Houston (+525).
— Dodgers Game 1 starter Walker Buehler (16-5, 2.47 ERA, 212 strikeouts) had his shortest start of the season Sept. 5 against San Francisco. Buehler allowed six runs and seven hits in three innings of a 6-4 loss. Conversely, Giants Game 1 starter Logan Webb (11-3, 3.03 ERA), in consecutive starts vs. the Dodgers in July, allowed just three earned runs over 11 innings, with the Giants winning both outings.
— In 40 career games against the Dodgers, Giants’ third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant has 10 homers, 18 RBIs, a .364 on-base percentage, and .885 OPS rate.
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Atlanta: 88-73, won NL East
Milwaukee: 95-67, won NL Central
Season Series: Tied 3-3
NLDS Betting Odds: Brewers -145 / Braves +120
— National League Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes (11-5, 2.43 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 234/34 K-BB, 12.6 K/9 rate) arguably had his worst performance of 2021 against the Braves, allowing five runs and nine hits in just four innings on July 30. Brewers co-ace Brandon Woodruff had a similarly shaky experience the following night, giving up three runs and eight hits to Atlanta’s offense, which ranked in the top-three in homers, RBI, and runs in the NL.
— Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman, the 2020 NL MVP, notched strong numbers against Brewers pitching this season, with two home runs, seven RBIs, eight runs scored, .320 batting average, .414 on-base percentage, and .974 OPS rate in 25 at-bats.
— DraftKings has a prop market of “Race to ‘X’ Runs,” with multiple options, including the race to six runs. The favorite in that option, at -160, is that neither team scores six or more runs in Game 1, which features the matchup of Burnes vs. Charlie Morton. In seven career starts at Milwaukee, Morton is 1-3 with 5.15 ERA, and uncharacteristically high 1.54 WHIP, covering 36.2 combined innings. Milwaukee is +285 to reach six runs first Friday night.
— Burns is a -145 favorite against Morton (+120) in Game 1. In his last 12 starts, Morton has four wins, a 2.71 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .184 opponents’ batting average, and prolific strikeout-to-walk rate of 81/16 over 69 2/3 innings,
— BetMGM has the Brewers’ odds of winning Game 1 by three runs or more at +950. In Milwaukee’s last 42 victories, dating to July 16, 30 were by three or more runs.
