The Saints and Ravens close an exciting Week 9 in a game with a spread of less than a field goal. So, we might be treated to one more fantastic game this week. The only thing that can make a competitive game more enjoyable is hitting some props. Specifically, three bets on the passing game stand out as quality Saints vs. Ravens player props.
Saints vs. Ravens Player Props: Week 9
Here are the three Saints vs. Ravens player props I like for Monday Night Football.
Alvin Kamara Over 4.5 Receptions (-130)
There’s a stark difference between Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton. The former is a YOLO-ball-throwing gunslinger, and the latter will gladly use his talented pass-catching running back. In fact, Dalton has peppered Kamara out of the backfield.
Kamara has a gaudy 24.1% Target Share in four games where he played with Dalton as the starter this year. He led the Saints in receptions and receiving yards in that four-game sample. In addition, Kamara has six, six, seven, and nine receptions in those contests.
Thus, Kamara averages seven receptions per game and has a 6.5-reception median outcome in Dalton’s starts this season. Last week, he also had season-high marks for targets (10) and receptions (nine).
Finally, Kamara has a perfect matchup. According to Pro-Football-Reference, running backs have averaged 6.25 receptions per game against the Ravens. So, I love Kamara’s over for 4.5 receptions this week.
Where to bet: Alvin Kamara Over 4.5 Receptions | -130 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Chris Olave Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Chris Olave has hit the ground running in his rookie campaign and hasn’t skipped a beat transitioning to catching passes from Dalton. He has a team-high 25.7% Target Share in three games with Dalton starting and Kamara in the lineup.
In his last four games, Olave has 52, 106, 54, and 67 receiving yards. In addition, the two games he fell short of 63.5 receiving yards were in Week 5 and Week 8. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Olave played only 40% of the Saints’ offensive snaps in Week 5 and 58% in Week 8. Olave was concussed and exited early in Week 5, and the Saints destroyed the Raiders last week, beating them 24-0.
So, as long as Olave doesn’t get hurt and leave the game early, he’s a stellar bet to exceed 63.5 receiving yards. Still, the matchup is another reason to love his over for 63.5 receiving yards. According to Football Outsiders, No. 1 wideouts have barbecued the Ravens for 89.5 receiving yards per game. Thus, I’m betting on Olave clearing 63.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Chris Olave Over 63.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Isaiah Likely Under 40.5 Receiving Yards (-104)
Isaiah Likely was a preseason all-star. But, sadly, he struggled to carry his momentum over to the regular season. The rookie tight end was on the field plenty, but he didn’t pop in the box score.
Likely had at least 30 receiving yards only two times in his first seven games, with a season-high of 43 in Week 2. However, Likely exploded for six receptions for 77 receiving yards last week. Not coincidentally, Mark Andrews was knocked out of that contest early with an injury.
Andrews is out this week. So, Likely should stay hot, right? To quote Lee Corso, not so fast, my friend. The Saints have been a nightmare for tight ends this year. The most productive tight ends for the teams that have faced the Saints this year have had 19, 9, 22, 23, 49, 21, 21, and 31 receiving yards. Noah Fant’s 49 receiving yards were the only mark above Likely’s Week 9 prop of 40.5 receiving yards. Thus, I’m not overthinking this pick. I’ll take the under for 40.5 receiving yards by Likely.
Where to bet: Isaiah Likely Under 40.5 Receiving Yards | -104 at Caesars Sportsbook
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