NFL football is at its best when starting quarterbacks are healthy. Fortunately, the Dolphins are getting Tua Tagovailoa back from a multi-week absence while recovering from a concussion. Meanwhile, Kenny Pickett cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol after getting knocked out of last week’s upset victory against the Buccaneers.
The Dolphins are trying to snap a three-game losing streak, and the Steelers will attempt to maintain momentum with another upset win. Still, our favorite bet isn’t on the outcome of the game. Instead, we’re fixated on the game’s total. So, should you hop on the over or under? We’ll give you our top Dolphins vs. Steelers predictions and the reasoning behind them.
Dolphins vs. Steelers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | +7.5 (-110) | +295 | O 45.5 (-110) |
| @ Dolphins | -7.5 (-110) | -370 | U 45.5 (-110) |
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 11 p.m. ET on Oct. 22.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 23
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FLA
- TV: NBC
Dolphins vs. Steelers Trends
- The game’s total opened at 45.5 points on Sunday (Oct. 16) night, dipped to 44.5 points on Monday morning, and ticked back up to 45.5 points on Friday.
- The under is 11-5 in the Dolphins’ last 16 games.
- The under is 10-4 in Miami’s last 14 games against a team with a losing record.
- The under is 4-1 in the Dolphins’ last five games on grass.
- The under is 11-5-1 in the Steelers’ last 17 games after a straight-up win.
- The under is 45-19-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 65 road games.
- The under is 3-1-1 in the Steelers’ last five games after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards in their previous contest.
Can Tua Turn the Tide for the ‘Phins?
The Dolphins began the year 3-0. They’ve since lost three consecutive games. So, can Tua turn them around? That remains to be seen. The lefty might be rusty after a multi-week absence.
Additionally, Miami wasn’t lighting up the scoreboard for most of their three-game winning streak to start the year. Instead, they scored 20 points against the Patriots in Week 1, 21 in Week 3 against the Bills (without some of their integral starters on defense), and only 14 points through three quarters in Week 2 before Baltimore’s epic defensive collapse.
Injuries are also a concern for Miami’s offense. Left tackle Terron Armstead has battled a toe injury, and Jaylen Waddle has been working through a shoulder issue.
.@miamidolphins final injury report vs. steelers pic.twitter.com/LHQMN1qQKI
— josh houtz (@houtz) October 21, 2022
Between Tua’s absence and the injuries on offense, there are reasons to be skeptical of an explosive effort in Week 7.
Is Kenny Pickett Capable of Keeping Pace?
Pickett hasn’t been a tire fire in his rookie season. Nevertheless, he hasn’t been a world-beater, either. The former Pitt Panther has thrown one touchdown and four interceptions on 83 pass attempts. In addition, per Pro-Football-Reference, Pickett has tallied 3.74 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), the worst among 34 qualified quarterbacks.
Pittsburgh’s offense has also generally been below-average. According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers are 24th in total offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), 20th in pass DVOA, and 31st in rush DVOA. Pro Football Focus (PFF) is less critical of Pittsburgh’s offense. Still, they rank the Steelers 16th in total offense.
However, traditional measures are the least flattering for Pittsburgh. They’ve last in yards per play (4.8) and 30th in scoring offense (16.2 points per game). Therefore, it’s challenging to get excited about Pittsburgh’s offense.
Dolphins vs. Steelers Predictions
The Dolphins and Steelers aren’t offensive juggernauts. Miami teased big-play potential before Tua’s injury, but it’s not a given he’ll immediately pick up where he left off. Further, the lefty didn’t leave on a high note. Instead, the Dolphins had only six points with five minutes and 57 seconds left in the half when he suffered a concussion against the Bengals in Week 4.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s offense is one of the least effective and lowest-scoring, as I established above. So, scoring might be tough to come by on Sunday night. The pace is likely to be favorable for a low-scoring affair, too. According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers are 22nd in situation-neutral pace, and the Dolphins are 29th.
The underlying data for both teams suggests they’ll go under 45.5 points on Sunday night. Further, Sunday Night Football has been low-scoring this year. The Chiefs and Buccaneers were outliers, scoring 72 points in Week 4. The other five contests had 43, 37, 36, 22, and 21 points. So, 38.5 points are the average point total on Sunday Night Football this year, and the median total is 36.5 points. Thus, the under is the most appealing bet for the Week 7 Sunday Night Football game.
Pick: Under 45.5 | -104 at FanDuel Sportsbook
