These NFL computer picks were compiled by the BetPrep.com database, focusing on line value when looking at historically similar matchups. For more details on the pick selection, scroll down to the reference section below.
We will track this model throughout the season, gleaning insights along the way.
NFL Computer Picks: Week 5
We are only tracking picks with 65% or greater in the similar matchups column. Still, there are 13 picks this week, including notable spreads and totals you should be paying attention to.
| Pick | Opponent | Similar Matchups |
|---|---|---|
| Giants +8 | at Packers | 90% |
| Over 41 | Giants-Packers | 70% |
| Jets +3 | vs. Dolphins | 72% |
| Under 46 | Jets-Dolphins | 88% |
| Texans +7 | at Jaguars | 94% |
| Under 43.5 | Texan-Jaguars | 69% |
| Bears +7 | at Vikings | 88% |
| Under 44 | Bears-Vikings | 78% |
| Falcons +8.5 | at Bucs | 91% |
| Under 48 | Falcons-Bucs | 69% |
| Under 48.5 | Bengals-Ravens | 97% |
| Raiders +7 | at Chiefs | 69% |
| Over 51 | Raiders-Chiefs | 81% |
Insights For Week 5
You can view last week’s results by visiting the NFL Computer Picks article for Week 4. It’s worth noting that the model had a 1-0 record at 100% line value last week. Unfortunately, there are no 100% bets for Week 5.
On top of that, picks with 80% or higher line value went 1-1 in Week 4. Above 80% is 13-14 on the season. In addition to the picks above, these bets made the cut for Week 5:
- Giants +8 at Packers
- Under 46 Jets-Dolphins
- Texans +7 at Jaguars
- Bears +7 at Vikings
- Falcons +8.5 at Bucs
- Under 48.5 Bengals-Ravens
- Over 51 Raiders Chiefs
The model went 3-5 last week. That was the first losing week of the season for this algorithm. The overall record is now 32-17 on the season. That’s a 65.31% hit rate across the first four weeks of this 2022-23 campaign.
NFL Computer Picks Reference
BetPrep’s NFL computer picks look through historical data to find line value on the spread or total. Essentially, it compares the spread/total with similar matchups over the years and lets you know if the number is higher or lower than a large percentage of those games. This is what the “Similar Matchup” column means in the aforementioned table.
For example, the Chargers are +4 at the Chiefs. BetPrep indicates that teams like the Chargers have a lower spread in 78% of similar matchups based on historical data. Thus, indicating line value for this pick.
You can view the model and poke around in the BetPrep database here.
NFL Computer Picks Results
Season Overall: 32-17
Spread: 18-9
Totals: 14-8