The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Tuesday, Oct. 4
Chris Flexen: Seattle Mariners
Matchup: Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners | 6:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.64 ERA indicates
Flexen has thrown well in a changing role throughout the season. He owns an 8-9 record with a 3.64 ERA through 32 games (21 starts). He’s due for plenty of regression, though, as he also owns a 5.05 xFIP this season.
Flexen has been better as a reliever this season. He enters this game with a 3.92 ERA through 117 innings as a starter. He’s also struggled with a 5.06 xFIP in those innings. Overall, he’s due for regression in both roles.
Luckily for Flexen, he gets a plus matchup against the Detroit Tigers. They’ve seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .301 team wOBA over the last 14 days. He’ll also benefit from throwing in a pitcher-friendly stadium tonight.
Bottom Line: Flexen isn’t a good pitcher, but he’s found some success. This is a situation where I wouldn’t trust the pitcher or the offense, as they’re both struggling.
Ryan Feltner: Colorado Rockies
Matchup: Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 6.01 ERA suggests
Feltner has struggled quite a bit throughout the 2022 season. He’s posted a 3-9 record with a 6.01 ERA through 19 games (18 starts) thus far. He boasts a 4.37 xFIP, though, and he’s been unlucky this season.
Feltner has struggled quite a bit in recent games. He’s posted an xFIP of 4.87 or worse in three of his last four starts. Before that, he recorded 3.56 and 3.79 xFIPs, suggesting he comes with plenty of upside.
Feltner gets a tough matchup on paper against the Los Angeles Dodgers. They’ve dominated this season, but they’ve been ice-cold in recent games. They own a .288 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Feltner hasn’t been good this season, but he gets a matchup against a cold offense. This is a sneaky spot for him to find success in.
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Gerrit Cole: New York Yankees
Matchup: New York Yankees at Texas Rangers | 8:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 3.51 ERA suggests
Cole has been enjoying another solid season, although he hasn’t been throwing at his normal elite level. He’s recorded a 13-7 record with a 3.51 ERA through 32 starts. He boasts an elite 2.81 xFIP, though.
Cole has seen mixed results in recent starts. He has two “bad” starts over his last five, posting 3.95 and 3.78 xFIPs in those contests. He boasts 2.43, 2.75, and 0.70 xFIPs in the other three starts.
Cole gets a good matchup against the Texas Rangers in the second game of a double header tonight. They’ve recorded a .265 team wOBA over the last 14 days as well.
Bottom Line: Cole has found plenty of success this season, and he’s throwing even better than his numbers suggest. He should find plenty of success before the postseason starts.