The Bengals can breathe a sigh of relief after winning their first game of the year last week. Conversely, the Dolphins will attempt to maintain momentum after moving to the top of the AFC East with a victory over the Bills last Sunday.
So, who will continue their winning ways on Thursday? Further, what should bettors be placing their money on? We’ll give you the info you need and provide you with our Bengals vs. Dolphins predictions (and best bets) on this Thursday Night Football clash.
Bengals vs. Dolphins Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | +4 (-112) | +164 | O 46.5 (-115) |
| @ Bengals | -4 (-108) | -196 | U 46.5 (-105) |
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 8 pm ET on Sept. 28.
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Sept. 29
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycor Stadium
- TV: Amazon
Bengals vs. Dolphins Trends
- The total opened at 48 points at FanDuel Sportsbook on Sunday (9/25) and slowly slipped to 46.5 points by Wednesday (9/28) night.
- The over is 5-1 in Miami’s last six games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in the last game.
- The under is 10-2-1 in the Dolphins’ last 13 Thursday games.
- The under is 8-0 in Cincinnati’s last eight games.
The Bengals Should Take Flight
Cincinnati’s offensive tendencies have varied with Zac Taylor as their head coach. However, Taylor has leaned into the pass this year. As a result, Cincinnati’s non-quarterbacks have attempted 23 rushes in neutral game scripts, far fewer than their 63 pass attempts.
Unfortunately, things didn’t get off on the right foot. Still, they figured it out last week. The Bengals scored 27 points in Week 3, and Joe Burrow efficiently passed for 275 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions on 36 attempts.
Burrow has a golden opportunity to light it up again this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins are 29th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Miami is also graded 29th in coverage at Pro Football Focus (PFF). So, Burrow might not meet much resistance.
Miami’s Offense is Humming
While Miami’s defense hasn’t been sharp, their offense has been on fire. They’re ranked sixth in offense at PFF and second in total offense DVOA at Football Outsiders.
The Dolphins have excelled at gaining yardage in chunks. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they’re third in yards per play (6.4). They’ve also taken care of the ball, turning it over only two times.
Moreover, like the Bengals, they’ve leaned into their passing attack. In neutral game scripts, the Dolphins have attempted 52 passes and 32 runs by non-quarterbacks this year.
Thus, head coach Mike McDaniel hasn’t leaned on his roots as a former run-game coordinator. Instead, he’s pushed all the right buttons and orchestrated a high-flying offense with speedy wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle gashing opponents. In fact, McDaniel has wisely force-fed the duo.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Waddle is ninth with a 29.7% Target Share, and Hill isn’t far behind in 11th with a 28.7% Target Share. McDaniel has also done some eye-catching things with fullback Alec Ingold to make life easier for his speedsters.
it's the little things with this Dolphins O to unlock all that speed they have.
MIA is in 21 personnel, which makes the Ravens match with Base defense. They call a run+Bubble play, but it has the added benefit of Fullback Alec Ingold in the slot as a lead blocker for Hill. pic.twitter.com/5f9Beuw9zZ
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 19, 2022
Mike McDaniel is insane in the best way. This man took FULLBACK Alec Ingold and put him as the boundary WR. I have to think it’s because he knew Waddle would break loose on this play and Ingold would become the lead blocker that would gain them 25 more yards down the field. pic.twitter.com/fjNbS7a8ab
— King of Phinland🐬👑 (@KingOfPhinland) September 21, 2022
So, again, McDaniel has been pushing the right buttons while calling an exciting offense.
Bengals vs. Dolphins Predictions
Miami’s stellar offense and questionable defense are a recipe for a shootout. Additionally, Cincinnati’s pass-first offense is equipped to pick apart Miami’s defense.
The pace might also be scoring-friendly. According to Football Outsiders, the Bengals have played at the eighth-fastest situation-neutral pace this season. Yes, Miami is only 29th in pace. Still, if the favored Bengals either force the tempo or lead, this game can turn into an uptempo affair.
The game should also feature plenty of passing since both teams have had a pass rate over expectations.
The overall leaders in pass rate over expectation (PROE) through 3 weeks:
1) Buffalo Bills
2) Kansas City Chiefs
3) Miami Dolphins pic.twitter.com/wS2moGol4O— Michael Leone (@2Hats1Mike) September 27, 2022
Both passing attacks have game-breaking talents. Specifically, Hill and Waddle are big-play machines for the Dolphins, and Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are home-run hitters for the Bengals. Ultimately, the offenses should have the advantage in this game.
So, I’m hopping on the game’s over at 46.5 points on FanDuel Sportsbook. After last week’s offensive struggle on Thursday Night Football, viewers (and bettors) should enjoy fireworks this week.
Pick: Over 46.5 Points (-115) | FanDuel Sportsbook
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