Welcome back to the small account challenge, where we took $5 to DraftKings Sportsbook and got $200 in return. I’ve been writing about each week’s NFL bets and guiding you on a path of profit for the NFL season.
We rolled into Week 2 with $196 to play with, risked $165, and lost $165. Not the week to write home about. I don’t make excuses, so the losses are the losses.
DraftKings NFL Picks: Week 2 Recap
- Bet: Jets-Browns, Browns -0.5 and Over 33 game total
- Odds: -110 at DraftKings
- Result: Loss
Cleveland failed to close this game. I’ve heard several takes on the meltdown, but it’s inexcusable. I wrote last week about taking advantage of the consistency in Cleveland’s approach this year, but in games like these, one struggles to publish a hard take on any organization or game. The Browns’ defense is good, but they tire down in the latter half of the ball game.
- Bet: Dolphins-Ravens, Dolphins +10 and Under 52 game total
- Odds: -120 at DraftKings
- Result: Loss
This was a bad read on my end, and once again, several unexpected scores happened. This ultimately just shows how quickly some of these teams can score. Rashad Bateman has now had 2 massive touchdowns in Weeks 1 and 2, and the combination of Waddle and Hill should freeze any sports bettor looking to bet the Under.
- Bet: Steelers +4 & Vikings +4
- Odds: +159 at DraftKings
- Result: Loss
The Steelers played a fairly predictable game with the detrimental turnovers on offense. They’re also struggling to run the ball and win the battle on 3rd down conversion. However, they weren’t the problem in this wager as we covered our bet with Pittsburgh losing 20-17.
The Vikings were a public favorite in the Monday Night Football matchup on the road against Philadelphia Eagles but certainly didn’t play like one. I was high on the Vikings in this matchup with two premier pass rushers in Smith and Hunter. Also, Minnesota’s secondary was encouraging and has been focused on improving for the last three years. Head Coach Kevin O’Connell couldn’t find a way to outsmart the Eagles’ defense, and Kirk Cousins wasn’t helping the situation at all. The Vikings need to hit the film room and find a way to overcome that loss. They’re too good of a team to write off at this point.
Small Account Challenge: Balance
Moving forward, we have $31 to play with this week. Not ideal, I know.
But the season is long, and we need to get the ship back on track. Here’s what I like for Sunday:
NFL Week 3 Predictions: Two Picks
Parlay: Raiders -2 & Bengals -4
- Odds: +264 at DraftKings
- Amount: $15 to win $54.66
I like this play a lot, with both teams needing to find their first win and playing a bit desperate. Let’s talk about each game briefly.
The Raiders travel to Nashville on Sunday to take on the Titans, who have struggled to perform on either side of the ball. The Titans have a few injuries, which is never good. This isn’t the week to have Lewan, Dupree, and Burks in the training room trying to get a full practice in by Friday. Ryan Tannehill has an 86.1 Passer Rating in the month of September. On the other hand, Derek Carr has averaged a 95.6 in September throughout his career but is sporting an 84.7 through his first two games this season.
The Raiders are 0-2, and head coach Josh McDaniels might be having flashbacks to his hot seat from the Broncos days. Case in point, the Raiders are desperate for a win, especially after crumbling down the stretch in last week’s stunning loss vs. Arizona.
I’m taking the Raiders to cover two points in this matchup.
The 0-2 Bengals travel to New York to take on the 1-1 Jets. An introduction I would’ve never thought I’d write in Week 3.
Joe Burrow has an average 92.7 passer rating in September throughout his career and a 73.1 rating through 2 games. Joe Flacco has averaged an 85 passer rating in September throughout his career. He has a 90 passer rating through 2 weeks. I predict a regression for Flacco and progression for Burrow.
If you’ve been watching the Bengals, you know their problem is protecting Burrow while making stops on defense. Burrow has been sacked 13 times in the last two games, but the Jets have only recorded three total sacks in two games. Somethings gotta give.
The Bengals’ defense should be fiending for a chance to redirect the ship against a lackluster quarterback on what may be Flacco’s last season.
This seems like a make-it-or-break-it game for the Bengals organization for this 2022 season. I predict they get the job done and cover four points.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Under 48.5
- Odds: -110 at DraftKings
- Amount: $15.50 to win $15
This play comes down to three things: the quarterback’s current performance, average scores per drive, and the number of drives estimated for each team.
Matthew Stafford has 51 QBR through 2 games, and the Rams are averaging 2.05 points per offensive drive. Similarly, Kyler Murray has a 62.7 QBR through Week 2, and the Cardinals are averaging 2.10 points per drive.
The average time per drive for the Rams is 2:58, and the average for the Cardinals is 3.05. In a one hour game, that’s roughly 20 points for the Rams and 21 for the Cardinals. This game would have to have several random events that set up scores to push the total over here.
I think both offenses struggle to execute and play to their averages with this division matchup.
