MLB Starting Pitchers Report: Marquez Due For Success At Home?

Aug 23, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher German Marquez (48) pitches in the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers at Coors Field.
Image Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.

In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.

MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Wednesday, Sept. 21

German Marquez: Colorado Rockies

Matchup: San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies | 8:40 pm ET

Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.14 ERA indicates

Marquez has struggled quite a bit this season. He’s posted an 8-11 record with a 5.14 ERA through 28 starts in 2022. His 4.11 xFIP suggests he’s throwing significantly better than that, though.

Marquez has looked awful in Colorado this season. He owns a 6.78 ERA through 82.1 home innings. He’s also posted a 3.65 xFIP in those innings, suggesting he’s due for more than 3 full runs worth of positive regression.

Marquez gets a great matchup against the San Francisco Giants tonight. They’ve been struggling, posting a .267 team wOBA over the last 14 days. The obvious concern is that they will be playing in Coors tonight.

Bottom Line: Marquez is due for positive regression in Coors, and this is as good of a matchup as he can get. If he’s going to find success at home, tonight is the night.

Roansy Contreras: Pittsburgh Pirates

Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees | 7:05 pm ET

Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.24 ERA suggests

Contreras has found plenty of success throughout his rookie season. He owns a 5-4 record with a 3.24 ERA through 18 games (15 starts). He’s due for regression with a 4.49 xFIP, though.

Even though he’s found success over his last few starts, Contreras’ advanced metrics tell a different story. He’s shown outstanding flashes at times, but he’s posted 6.09 and 4.68 xFIPs in two of his last three starts. He’s been the definition of a boom or bust pitcher in recent starts.

Contreras gets a terrible matchup against the New York Yankees tonight. They’ve been playing at an extremely high level, recording a .348 team wOBA over the last 14 days. This game will also be played in an extremely hitter-friendly stadium.

Bottom Line: Contreras isn’t throwing as well as his numbers suggest. He gets a tough matchup against New York tonight, and the Yankees should find plenty of success in this game.

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Bryce Elder: Atlanta Braves

Matchup: Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves | 12:20 pm ET

Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.67 ERA suggests

Elder has performed well through 7 games (6 starts) in his rookie season. He owns a 1-3 record with a 3.67 ERA thus far. He also owns a 4.72 xFIP in those games, and he’s due for regression as he throws more innings.

Elder has quietly thrown extremely well in his last two starts. He owns 3.60 and 2.60 xFIPs in those games. Prior to that, he recorded 6.44, 6.53, and 7.60 xFIPs in his last three starts.

Elder gets an interesting matchup against the Washington Nationals tonight. They’ve posted a .312 team wOBA over the last 14 days, and the Nationals have some upside throughout their offense.

Bottom Line: Elder has been throwing well, but he’s due for some regression. I don’t hate the matchup, although it isn’t great. The young pitcher is extremely risky on this slate.