The Mississippi State Bulldogs will travel to Tiger Stadium for a weekend matchup against LSU. The Bulldogs own a 2-0 record with a pair of easy wins over Memphis and Arizona. The Tigers lost a heartbreaker to Florida State before dominating Southern in a cupcake matchup.
These are two similarly ranked teams in the SEC. It’s very realistic that this game could determine which finishes ahead of the other in the conference standings. Mississippi State will look to continue their undefeated season, while LSU will look to grab their first FBS win of 2022.
In this article, I’ll break down the odds for this game and you’ll find my favorite Mississippi State vs. LSU predictions.
Mississippi State vs. LSU Predictions
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Mississippi State vs. LSU Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miss. State | -2 (-110) | -125 | O 53 (-110) |
| @ LSU | +2 (-110) | +105 | U 53 (-110) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5 p.m. on Sep. 14.
Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Sep. 17
- Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Tiger Stadium – Baton Rouge, LA
- TV: ESPN
Mississippi State vs. LSU Trends
Let’s take a look at some relevant betting trends for the Mississippi State vs. LSU game:
- Mississippi State has posted a 2-0 ATS record this season
- LSU owns a 1-1 ATS record in 2022
- As of Wednesday afternoon, 58% of the bets and 57% of the handle were on LSU +2.5 spread
- DraftKings also reports that 71% of the bets and 53% of the handle is on over 53 points
- Mississippi State enters this game with a 1-1 over/under record
- LSU also owns a 1-1 over/under record this season
Passing Offense vs. Pass Defense
Mississippi State relies heavily on their passing game with Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense. Will Rogers has totaled 763 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions through only two games.
The Bulldogs have a solid running back duo in Dillon Johnson and Jo’quavious Marks. They’re an efficient group, but this is an offense that relies heavily on the passing game to find success down the field and in the red zone.
Will Rogers currently leads the SEC in passing yards (763), completion percentage (78.57), and passing touchdowns (9)
No other SEC passer has 7 passing touchdowns this season
— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) September 14, 2022
LSU boasts a strong defense, though. Phil Steele projected them to allow 207.5 passing yards per game this season. They feature a solid secondary with one of the top defensive lines in the NCAA.
In their only matchup against the FBS opponent, the Tigers saw mixed results against Jordan Travis. He threw for 260 yards and 2 touchdowns on 32 pass attempts. They aren’t going to need to help with the run game in this game, though, allowing them to focus solely on slowing down Rogers and the Mississippi State passing offense.
On the other side, Jayden Daniels is the focal point of the LSU offense. He threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns on 35 attempts against Florida State. He did run for 114 yards in that game, but he’s the only player with true rushing potential in this offense.
Mississippi State runs a 3-3-5 defense, allowing them to focus on slowing down the pass. There’s very little concern with the LSU backfield, meaning the Bulldogs can potentially spy Daniels to help slow down his rushing potential as well.
LSU Running Backs
If you read my article about Louisville, you know that I believe there are very few quarterbacks in the NFL that can find success against high-end college football teams as the entire focal point of their offense. Daniels is not one of those quarterbacks.
The Tigers’ running back room will have to step up in this game if they want to find success. Noah Cain and Armoni Goodwin totaled only 37 yards and 1 touchdown on 12 carries against Florida State.
Touchdown No. 2 for Cain in the Purple & Gold
📺 SEC Network pic.twitter.com/IGyzpnnvuS
— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) September 11, 2022
Mississippi State has seen mixed against running backs throughout the season. They have performed well against quarterbacks on the ground, suggesting they could force LSU’s running backs to beat them.
This game could come down to which team can find success in this particular matchup.
Mississippi State vs. LSU Predictions
This is a game where both teams could potentially be airing it out. I trust LSU’s defense to give Rogers and company their toughest test to date. On the other side, Mississippi State should be able to slow down Daniels’ running ability. If that’s the case, he’ll be forced to beat them through the air.
Overall, I don’t expect these offenses to find all that much success in this game. I am somewhat worried about the potential pace giving so many opportunities that they could find the over. Still, I’m siding with the pass defenses in this game. I favor the under instead of anything else in this game.
Pick: Under 53 total points | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook