Josh Shepardson

Chiefs vs. Chargers Predictions: Thursday Night Football Picks (Week 2)

Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers looks to pass the ball during the third quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at SoFi Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Inglewood, California.
Image Credit: Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images

Quoting the great Samuel L. Jackson in Jurassic Park, hold onto your butts.

The Chiefs and Chargers were sharp in Week 1 wins and will clash in what should be an exciting Thursday Night Football shootout.

Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert looked like they were in midseason form last week and might bring the best out of each other this week. Last year, these AFC West foes split their two meetings and lit up the scoreboard. The Chargers won the first meeting in Week 3 in Kansas City 30-24. Then, they lost an overtime thriller 34-28 in Los Angeles in Week 15.

Can we expect more fireworks from two high-powered offenses led by a pair of the NFL’s most gifted quarterbacks? Let’s dig into the numbers and see what they reveal. From there, we’ll formulate our Chiefs vs. Chargers predictions for Thursday Night Football Week 2.

Chiefs vs. Chargers Predictions

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Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Chargers+4.5+176O 53.5 (-115)
@ Chiefs-4.5-210U 53.5 (-105)

Odds via Draftkings Sportsbook as of 7:30 pm ET on Sept. 14.

Game Info

  • Date: Thursday, Sept. 15
  • Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
  • TV: Amazon

Chiefs vs. Chargers Trends

  • The over is 4-0 in the Chargers’ previous four games against a team with a winning record.
  • The over is 6-1 in Los Angeles’s last seven games.
  • The over has been 8-1 in Kansas City’s last nine games as a favorite.
  • The over is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ previous six Thursday games.
  • When the Chiefs have been home favorites in their last five games, the over is 4-1.
  • The over is 4-1 in Kansas City’s previous five games against an AFC West opponent.
  • The over is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last five games against an opponent with a winning record.
  • The game’s total has oscillated between 53.5 points (opening line on Sunday night (9/11) and present line) and 54.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Chiefs: No Tyreek Hill. No Problem.

As the headline implies, the Chiefs didn’t need Cheetah in their opener, hanging 44 points on the Cardinals in Arizona. Moreover, the Chiefs weren’t pressed, outscoring the Cardinals 37-7 through three quarters. The Chargers are a significantly better offense. So, they should force the Chiefs to keep their foot on the accelerator.

Fortunately, Kansas City loves airing it out and playing fast. In 2021, the Chiefs had the third-highest pass rate (62%) in neutral game scripts and played at the third-fastest pace in neutral situations.

It’s also encouraging they retained their identity in Week 1. Specifically, the Chiefs attempted 28 passes, and the running backs carried the ball only 10 times in the first half last week. So, it’s wheels up for Kansas City’s offense to take flight in an AFC West slugfest.

Finally, the Chiefs had a better offense than the aforementioned Chargers last year, ranking third in offensive DVOA.

Chargers: No Keenan Allen. No Problem? 

Keenan Allen is out with a hamstring injury. Still, don’t fret. The Chargers scored 37 points against the New York Giants in Week 14 last year without Allen. In addition, Herbert is willing and able to pick defenses apart by using a variety of weapons.

Specifically, Herbert completed multiple passes to nine players in Week 1. He completed 26 of 34 passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns, picking up where he left off last season. Herbert was second in passing yards per game (294.9) last year, orchestrating a pass-first speedy offense.

According to Sharp Football Stats, the Chargers were tied for the fourth-highest passing rate (61%) in neutral game scripts. In addition, per Football Outsiders, they had the sixth-fastest situation-neutral pace. Finally, according to Football Outsiders, the Chargers were fourth in total offensive Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Chiefs vs. Chargers Predictions

The Chiefs and Chargers were among the NFL’s elite teams on paper before the year. Fortunately, they lived up to expectations in Week 1. While many teams were sloppy in their opener, the Chiefs and Chargers were humming immediately.

Sure, the AFC West rivals added high-end talent to their respective defenses. But, regardless, offense is king in the modern NFL. Moreover, Mahomes and Herbert are too talented to hold in check.

Further, the proof is in the pudding. As I noted in the intro, the Chargers and Chiefs went blow for blow in two exciting shootouts last year. Interestingly, the teams each scored precisely 58 points against one another, good for a per-game average of 29 points.

As a result, I’m getting my popcorn ready for what I expect to be a shootout that exceeds 53.5 points.

Pick: Over 53.5 total points | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook

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