The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Monday, Sept. 12
Tyler Anderson: Los Angeles Dodgers
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.73 ERA indicates
Anderson has looked outstanding through 26 games (24 starts). He boasts a 14-3 record with a 2.73 ERA in those games. He also owns a 4.16, though, suggesting he’s due for some regression.
Anderson hasn’t been throwing all that well in recent games. He’s posted an xFIP over 4.00 in 7 consecutive starts. His xFIP got as high as 6.70 against the San Francisco Giants over that span.
Anderson gets a tough matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks. They aren’t the most dangerous offense in the MLB, but they do boast a .348 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: This isn’t exactly the scariest matchup in the world for Anderson. With that being said, I do think there’s a chance Arizona gets to him, and he’s riskier than most will admit tonight.
Javier Assad: Chicago Cubs
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at New York Mets | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.93 ERA suggests
Assad has thrown in very limited innings so far this season. He’s posted an 0-1 record with a 2.93 ERA through 4 games (3 starts). He’s recorded a 4.28 xFIP in those games, which is a cause for concern.
Assad is coming off of his worst start of the season against the Cincinnati Reds. He allowed 4 earned runs over 5.1 innings. Funny enough, he posted a 2.55 xFIP in that game. Prior to that, he recorded 6.00 and 5.73 xFIPs in his starts.
Assad gets a terrible matchup against the New York Mets tonight. They’ve been one of the hottest offenses in the MLB, posting a .350 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Assad is due for quite a bit of regression. The Mets are an offense that should have the ability to get to him early and often. I’m not expecting a good start for the young pitcher.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today – Top MLB Player Props (Daily Picks)
Jose Berrios: Toronto Blue Jays
Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays | 7:07 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.23 ERA suggests
Berrios has struggled throughout the 2022 season. He’s recorded a 10-5 record with a 5.23 ERA through 27 starts. He’s throwing much better than those numbers suggest, though, as he’s also posted a 4.12 xFIP.
Berrios is also a better option at home this season. He owns a 4.28 ERA through 73.2 innings in Toronto thus far. His xFIP also dips to 3.67 at home in 2022.
Berrios gets a tough matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. They’ve been playing well, recording a .320 team wOBA over the last 14 days. It’s also important to note that Toronto is playing in a hitter-friendly stadium.
Bottom Line: Berrios is due for positive regression, but he gets a tough matchup tonight. If I had to pick a side, I’d lean slightly toward the right-hander, but I’m not overly confident in him at this point.