Let’s dive into our NFL Week 1 picks, starting with the Saints vs. Falcons predictions and best bets.
Both teams are in somewhat of a transition period. The Saints have a new head coach (Dennis Allen) while the Falcons no longer have franchise QB Matt Ryan.
Despite those changes for both sides, these teams are in two different places. The Falcons are clearly rebuilding while the Saints have playoff expectations.
Having said that, the Falcons would love to play spoiler in this divisional matchup. Let’s break down the odds and get to the picks!
Saints vs. Falcons Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | -5.5 | -230 | O 42.5(-110) |
| @ Falcons | +5.5 | +195 | U 42.5 (-110) |
Odds via Betway as of 5 p.m. ET on Sept 6.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 11
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Mercedes Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
- TV: FOX
Saints vs. Falcons Trends
- The Under is 19-11 in Atlanta’s last 30 games.
- New Orleans is 10-4-1 against the spread in their last 15 games against Atlanta.
- The Under is 10-5 in the last eight matchups between New Orleans
- Atlanta is 8-11-1 against the spread in the last 20 games as the underdog.
- As of Wednesday afternoon, DraftKings reports that 76% of tickets and 90% of the handle are on New Orleans against the spread.
- DraftKings also reports that 65% of betting tickets and 75% of the money are on Over 42.5 total points.
Dennis Allen Era Begins For Saints
The Saints will not have Sean Payton as their head coach for the first time since 2005. Former Saints DC Dennis Allen will take over, but they will have familiar faces back on the field.
Jameis Winston will return as a quarterback after a torn ACL in Week 8 that ended his 2021 season. They will also see the return of WR Michael Thomas, who has not seen the field since Week 14 of 2020 as he dealt with injuries for the past two years.
“i don’t care how they doing me , as long as I’M doing me” – jameis 😭😭🔥🔥 this season about to be a movie @Jaboowins pic.twitter.com/eW4Mt7UQIG
— Trace (@yfntrace) September 7, 2022
The Saints also added to the receiving corps by bringing in former Browns receiver Jarvis Landry while drafting Ohio State standout Chris Olave in the first round of the 2022 draft.
The tandem of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram returns for another season that will help bring balance to this offense.
They also returned a strong defense that was the fourth-best scoring defense (19.7 points allowed per game) and allowed the seventh-fewest total yards per game (318.2).
The Falcons Bring New Players On Both Sides
Year two of the Arthur Smith era in Atlanta brings a brand new team. Matt Ryan and the entire starting receiving corps are gone, and the team brings in a new group of skill players.
Atlanta signed former Raiders backup Marcus Mariota at quarterback. However, with the team drafting former Cincinnati Desmond Ridder, Mariota could be a bridge.
In the last two seasons, they’ve drafted pass catchers with their first rounds picks, including tight end Kyle Pitts previous season, who had second-most receiving yards for a rookie tight end in NFL history (1,026). In the 2022 draft, Atlanta took former USC standout Drake London in the first round. Both these guys stand over 6’5” and will be excellent targets for this passing offense.
Marcus Mariota finds rookie WR Drake London 🔥#Falcons pic.twitter.com/6kH4lmVEpW
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) August 12, 2022
The running game will see the return of Cordarrelle Patterson, but they’ve revamped a whole new depth chart, including drafting RB Tyler Allgeier and signing RB Damien Willams.
The big question is, how will the defense be this year? The Falcons will have as many as seven new starters on a defense that finished 26th in points allowed.
Week 1 NFL Props: Justin Bales pinpoints the best NFL player props for Week 1, including a severely underrated running back.
Saints vs. Falcons Predictions
The are so many elements coming into this game. Jameis Winston has not seen an NFL field in almost a year, did not get any preseason snaps, and Marcus Mariota has only thrown 30 regular passes since 2020. Both teams bring in new players, and the Falcons are starting over.
While I’m not necessarily expecting a shootout, these teams should sneak over the total of 42.5 points.
Pick: Over 42.5 total points | -110 at Betway Sportsbook