College football gave us a small appetizer in Week 0, but the main course starts in Week 1. Let’s set the table with our Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia predictions for Thursday night.
These two teams have a history, with the “Backyard Brawl” serving as the 14th-oldest rivalry in college football. Pittsburgh currently leads the series 61-40-3, but the rivalry has been all West Virginia recently. They’ve won each of the past three matchups and 14 of the past 20.
Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia Predictions
For my Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia Predictions, I’ll place these wagers at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia | +7.5 (-110) | +245 | O 51 (-110) |
| @ Pittsburgh | -7.5 (-110) | -295 | U 51 (-110) |
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Sept. 1, 2022
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia Trends
- Pittsburgh was 11-3 last season (8-5 against the spread).
- West Virginia was 6-7 last season (5-7 against the spread).
- Pittsburgh is 11-3-1 against the spread as a favorite in their last 15 games, including 5-0 in their last five.
- West Virginia is 6-24 against the spread in their last 30 games as underdogs.
- West Virginia was 2-0 as underdogs of at least 7.5 points last season.
- West Virginia is 2-8 in their past 10 road games.
- The over is 15-6 in Pittsburgh’s last 21 games.
- The over is 0-5 in West Virginia’s past five games.
- As of Tuesday, DraftKings reports that 52% of the handle and 49% of the spread bets are on Pittsburgh.
- The Under has currently received 47% of the handle on just 23% of the bets.
Can Pittsburgh Repeat In 2022-23?
For the first time in school history, Pittsburgh won the ACC last season. Their last conference championship was with the Big East in 2004, which didn’t feature nearly the same level of competition.
The big question is can they do it again? Pittsburgh does return eight offensive starters from last year’s squad, but two of the subtractions are massive. The biggest loss is Kenny Pickett. He was drafted in the first round by the Steelers, and he put together a massive year in his final collegiate season. He racked up 4,319 passing yards with 42 touchdowns and just seven interceptions.
The more I keep digging into Kedon Slovis' tape and stats and metrics, the more I'm believing in the transition from Kenny Pickett. I think it'll be more seamless than people think on the surface.
— Corey Crisan (@cdcrisan) August 30, 2022
Replacing Pickett will be Kedon Slovis, a transfer from USC. Slovis had plenty of success early in his career with the Trojans, racking up 3,502 passing yards with 30 touchdowns. His average of 9.4 adjusted yards per attempt was actually the 13th-best mark in all of college football. His production waned in the following two seasons, but perhaps a change of scenery will help him rediscover his talent.
Unfortunately, Slovis won’t have the services of Jordan Addison, who ironically transferred to USC. He managed 100 catches and 1,593 receiving yards, and his 17 receiving touchdowns led all of college football.
Given the uncertainty on offense, the defense should be the star of the show in 2022-23. The Panthers had one of the best defenses in college football last season, ranking first in the ACC against the rush. They also garnered the second-most sacks and the fifth-most tackles for loss across the country.
Can J.T. Daniels Thrive At West Virginia?
Daniels has had a circuitous route to Morgantown. Like Slovis, he also started his career at USC, and he played immediately as a freshman. He was average in his first collegiate season, tallying 2,672 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.
However, he lost his job to Slovis the following season, which resulted in him transferring to Georgia. Things weren’t any easier for him there, where he served as the backup to Stetson Bennett.
West Virginia officially names JT Daniels starting QB, setting up Backyard Brawl showdown with ex-teammate Kedon Slovishttps://t.co/pOmIusqkYq
— Barrett Sallee (@BarrettSallee) August 29, 2022
He’ll get his first real chance since 2018-19 as a starter with West Virginia this season. The former five-star prospect has plenty of talent, and offensive coordinator Graham Harrell should put that to use. Bryce Ford-Wheaton and Sam Jones are also two of the best returning wide receivers in the Big 12.
The biggest red flag for the Mountaineers this season is their secondary. They lost all but one starter to transfers and graduation, so there is plenty of uncertainty on the back end of their defense. They do have some solid contributors up front, so the secondary will likely be what makes or breaks this unit.
Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia Predictions
This line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5, and I would’ve had some interest in them at that number. Even without Pickett and Addison, they should have more than enough to take advantage of the unproven Mountaineers’ secondary. The Panthers also have massive advantages on defense against a unit that allowed the most sacks and tackles for loss in the Big 12 last year. However, the line moving above a touchdown makes the bet a lot trickier.
Instead, let’s focus on the Under 51 points. Pitt shouldn’t be as effective on offense this season, but they should make life miserable for Daniels. The total has also dropped a few points after opening at 54, but there’s still some value at the current number.
Prediction: Under 51 total points | -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
More College Football Week 1 Picks
- Purdue vs. Penn State Predictions: Thu 9/1
- TCU vs. Colorado Predictions: Fri 9/2
- Illinois vs. Indiana Predictions: Fri 9/2
- Saturday NCAAF Week 1 Picks coming soon!
