Let’s dive into our Chiefs vs. Packers predictions for NFL preseason Week 3.
This is one of two Thursday Night Football games for Week 3 of the preseason. The other contest features the 49ers vs. Texans airing on Amazon Prime.
The Cheifs vs. Packers will be televised live on NFL Network, and we’ll break down the odds to formulate a pick for this matchup.
Chiefs vs. Packers Predictions
For my Chiefs vs. Packers picks, I’ll be placing these wagers at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Chiefs vs. Packers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | -1.5 (-110) | -120 | O 36 (-110) |
| @ Chiefs | +1.5 (-110) | +100 | U 36 (-110) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3 p.m. ET on Aug. 24.
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Aug. 25
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO
- TV: NFL Network
Chiefs vs. Packers Trends
Let’s take a look at some relevant betting trends for the 49ers vs. Texans as well as the NFL preseason in general:
- The Chiefs are 1-1 this preseason, fresh off a 24-14 win against the Commanders.
- The Packers are 1-1 this preseason, beating the Saints 20-10 last Friday.
- Kansas City HC Andy Reid is 43-46 SU in the preseason.
- Green Bay HC Matt LaFleur is 3-6 SU in the preseason.
- Underdogs are 53.7% against the spread in the NFL preseason in the previous ten years.
- As of Wednesday afternoon, DraftKings reports that 45% of tickets and 97% of the money are on the Packers against the spread. That explains the spread moving from its open of Kansas City -2 to Green Bay -1.5.
- DraftKings also reports that 83% of betting tickets but only 33% of the handle have selected Under 36 total points.
Lack Of Clarity On Chiefs’ Starters
Kansas City HC Andy Reid has been coy with his plans for Preseason Week 3, stating that he didn’t know if his starters would play. However, let’s take a look at Reid’s decisions from last preseason:
In last years preseason the #Chiefs starters played
– One series in game one
– Three series in game two
– Two series in game threeI’d guess we see them use a similar plan this preseason.
— Zack Eisen (@zackeisen21) August 19, 2022
It would be nice to have confirmation on whether or not Mahomes will come in for a series or two on Thursday. After all, the first team offense has been outstanding in the preseason, converting three touchdowns on three drives.
However, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Reid rested his starters since they have looked great overall. Once reports surfaced surrounding Kansas City’s uncertainty, the spread promptly moved from Chiefs -3 to +3. That line dropped back down to Chiefs +1.5 after confirming that Green Bay won’t play its starters.
Packers Won’t Play Starters
The Packers’ situation is more straightforward: They won’t play their starters in Week 3 of the preseason.
That means we’ll continue to see Jordan Love start at quarterback and play most of the game. Love has racked up 24 passing attempts in each preseason game so far, coming through with 289 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions.
Matt LaFleur says the starters who’ve sat the first two preseason games won’t play against the Chiefs on Thursday.
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) August 23, 2022
If Mahomes doesn’t play, Green Bay has the advantage at quarterback. Love is a talented signal-caller who knows this offense well. He had a few bad-luck interceptions in Week 1 of the preseason, but the Utah State product came through with a strong showing against the Saints last Friday.
Chiefs vs. Packers Predictions
This is pure speculation, but I don’t think Mahomes plays on Thursday. Of course, we’ll need to scour the news to clarify this situation.
Mahomes played in Week 3 of the preseason last year, but that was after he looked sloppy in Week 2. It’s safe to say that Mahomes and the first team offense have nothing to prove this time around, and it makes sense to avoid injury risk. Reid has been straightforward about his starters’ playing time in the preseason so far, so his cagey comments seem telling.
If the Chiefs don’t have Mahomes to lead a touchdown drive (or two) like the first couple of preseason games, then they are at a disadvantage. I’ll take Green Bay’s QB situation (Love trying to prove himself) over Kansas City’s carousel of Chad Henne and a pair of rookies trying to get their bearings.
Prediction: Packers -1.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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