Let’s dive into our 49ers vs. Texans predictions for NFL preseason Week 3.
This game will be streaming on Amazon Prime, as that platform will carry Thursday Night Football throughout the regular season. This is football the way it’s intended: Exclusively on a streaming platform tied to a retail giant.
49ers vs. Texans Predictions
For my 49ers vs. Texans picks, I’ll be placing these wagers at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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49ers vs. Texans Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | -3.5 (-110) | -175 | O 41.5 (-110) |
| @ Texans | +3.5 (-110) | +150 | U 41.5 (-110) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4 p.m. on Aug. 23.
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, August 25.
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: NRG Stadium in Houston, TX
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
49ers vs. Texans Trends
Let’s take a look at some relevant betting trends for the 49ers vs. Texans as well as the NFL preseason in general:
- The 49ers won their previous preseason game 17-7 at Minnesota.
- The Texans won their previous preseason game 24-20 at the Rams.
- San Fransisco HC Kyle Shanahan is 10-7 SU in the preseason with the 49ers.
- Houston HC Lovie Smith is 2-0 SU in the preseason with the Texans.
- Underdogs are 53.7% against the spread in the NFL preseason in the previous ten years.
- As of Wednesday afternoon, DraftKings reports that 70% of tickets and 79% of the money are on the favorite 49ers against the spread.
- DraftKings also reports that 52% of betting tickets and 59% of the handle have selected Under 41.5 total points.
How Much Will Mills and The Starters Play?
The Texans are committed to Davis Mills at quarterback, and he should get a significant amount of playing time with his offense. He’s seen a bump in playing time from Preseason Week 1 and 2, and as he and his fellow starters learn the new scheme of Lovie Smith, I expect that trend to continue on Thursday.
Smith: Texans starters to play "a lot more" Preseason Week 3.
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) August 22, 2022
One thing we’ll be looking for is how Smith controls the snaps of the running backs. Rookie Dameon Pierce had a stellar first game against New Orleans, rushing for 49 yards on just five carries. He didn’t see the field in Week 2, but some believe that’s because he already earned the starting job. We’ll watch to see where he, along with Marlon Mack, Royce Freeman, and Rex Burkhead, get mixed in.
The big highlight of the Texans’ preseason has been their defensive line, as they have 11 sacks and 16 pressure in the first two games. We’ll see if that can continue this week and possibly be the x-factor for improvement this season.
Lance And The Starters Have Their Final Exhibition
This is the final dress rehearsal for Trey Lance as he becomes QB1 in San Francisco. Lance didn’t get a single snap in last week’s game against the Vikings, but with the team going on the road in a short week, it’s not surprsing that he was saved for this game.
Shanahan said that he would have his starters play in this game, but for how long, we don’t know. They likely view this game as the dress rehearsal for when the games matter, so look for the first unit to get a reasonable amount of time together.
Kyle Shanahan on his plan for Trey Lance and starters vs. Houston: “I want them to get out there definitely, the ones…I plan on playing those guys, but I haven’t decided how much. I know they won’t go past the first half.” #49ers
— Lindsey Pallares (@lindseylares) August 23, 2022
The one position we’re trying to figure out is what’s the pecking order in the backfield. That’s par for the course in a Shanahan offense every season. The 49ers have a crowded backfield, but they’ll be settling who’s the backup to Elijah Mitchell. Each one of the running backs on the depth chart has gotten lead-back duties in the preseason, including Trey Sermon, Jeff Wilson Jr., and JaMycal Hasty. No Mitchell, as he deals with a hamstring injury, will give these guys an opportunity for more snaps.
49ers vs. Texans Predictions
If we knew how much the starters would play on each side, we could have a clearer picture of this game. The third preseason is usually when the starters see the most significant amount of playing time, and when you handicap that way, rolling with San Fransisco in a small spread is the obvious choice.
Prediction 1: 49ers -3.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The one thing that each of these teams has is experience on the depth chart. Each quarterback on both rosters has been a starter except rookie Brock Purdy. They also have experienced running backs that have all been starters at one in their careers. The money and handle are closely even on the total. I’m going against the slight tip and saying we’ll see some offense.
Prediction 2: Over 41.5 total points | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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