The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Tuesday, Aug. 23
Aaron Civale: Cleveland Guardians
Matchup: Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.63 ERA indicates
Civale has struggled quite a bit this season. He enters this game with a 2-5 record and a 5.63 ERA through 14 starts. His .341 BABIP and 3.76 xFIP suggest he’s due for plenty of positive regression, though.
Civale has looked good in recent games, allowing only 4 earned runs over his last 18 innings. He has quietly posted 1.01, 3.33, 2.66, and 2.85 xFIPs in 4 of his last 5 starts as well.
Civale gets a terrible matchup against the San Diego Padres. They have been one of the hottest offenses in the MLB in recent games, and the Padres feature one of the best offenses from top to bottom since the trade deadline.
Bottom Line: Civale is due for plenty of positive regression, but it is difficult to project any pitcher throwing overly well against this San Diego team.
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Jake Woodford: St. Louis Cardinals
Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs | 8:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.66 ERA suggests
Woodford has thrown well in limited innings this season. He’s recorded a 2-0 record with a 2.66 ERA through 13 games (0 starts). His 4.58 xFIP suggests he’s throwing much worse than his baseline metrics, though.
Woodford is going to act as the opener today, but he’s thrown 3+ innings in 4 games this season. It’s unknown if he’s going to be used as a normal opener (1 inning) or a long opener, although the fewer innings he throws, the more volatility is added to this play.
Woodford gets a tougher matchup against the Chicago Cubs tonight. They have been playing well recently, although the wind will be blowing in today. That gives a bump to pitchers.
Bottom Line: Woodford is due for regression, but his limited innings make him a more volatile option. It’s a tough matchup, but the wind will help him overall. It seems as though he won’t throw more than an inning or two, which makes him a volatile option.
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Austin Voth: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.86 ERA suggests
Voth has seen mixed results throughout the 2022 season. He owns a 3-1 record to go along with a 4.86 ERA through 33 games (10 starts). He also boasts a solid 3.94 xFIP, though.
Voth has been better as a starter this season. He owns a 4.14 xFIP through 24.1 innings as a reliever compared to a 3.82 xFIP through 42.1 innings as a starter.
Voth gets a difficult matchup against the Chicago White Sox. They have struggled at times offensively this season, but they’ve been heating up in recent games. He will also be throwing in a hitter-friendly stadium in Baltimore tonight.
Bottom Line: Voth has thrown well as a starter, but he gets a tough matchup. I do think he could find success in this game, but this isn’t an ideal situation for him.
