The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Thursday, Aug. 18
Jose Berrios: Toronto Blue Jays
Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.61 ERA indicates
Berrios has struggled quite a bit this season. He owns an 8-5 record with a 5.61 ERA through 23 starts. His 4.17 xFIP and .313 BABIP suggest he’s gotten extremely unlucky thus far, though.
Berrios has also been terrible on the road, posting a 7.50 ERA through 54 road innings. He’s certainly worse on the road, although he owns a 4.79 xFIP outside of Toronto. Although it isn’t a great number, he’s due for plenty of positive regression.
Berrios gets an interesting matchup against the New York Yankees. They’re one of the top offenses in the MLB, but they’re been struggling in recent weeks. The biggest concern is the hitter-friendly stadium he’ll be throwing in.
Bottom Line: Berrios is due for plenty of positive regression, specifically on the road. This is a boom or bust matchup tonight.
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Lucas Giolito: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox | 2:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.92 ERA suggests
Giolito is another high-quality arm who has struggled this season. He enters this game with a 9-6 record and 4.92 ERA. He also owns a 3.67 xFIP, though, suggesting he’s throwing better than his baseline metrics.
Giolito has quietly thrown well in recent games. He’s posted 2.60, 3.80, and 3.59 xFIPs over his last 3 starts. Although he has found success with advanced metrics, he’s given up 7 earned runs over those games.
Giolito gets a tough matchup against the Houston Astros. They have been playing extremely well in recent games, but they quietly rank 26th in the MLB in OPS against right-handed pitching since July 16th.
Bottom Line: Giolito is throwing significantly better than his metrics suggest, and he makes an interesting option in this matchup. I’m expecting him to hold down the Houston offense slightly today.
Zac Gallen: Arizona Diamondbacks
Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants | 3:45 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.94 ERA suggests
Gallen has found plenty of success throughout the 2022 season. He owns an 8-2 record with a 2.94 ERA through 22 starts. He has struggled a bit more than that with a 3.66 xFIP, though.
Gallen has recorded 2.46 and 2.11 xFIPs in his last two starts. These are dominant numbers, but he’s also posted 4.00 or higher xFIPs in plenty of starts. He topped out with a 6.06 xFIP against the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this season.
Gallen gets a matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who have been playing well recently. They have seen mixed results against right-handed pitching in recent games, though.
Bottom Line: Gallen has been throwing extremely well throughout the season. If this were a bigger slate, he likely wouldn’t make it on this article. I’m expecting him to throw relatively well, but this is a tougher matchup.
