The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Wednesday, August 17
Austin Voth: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays | 3:07 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.34 ERA indicates
Voth has struggled quite a bit this season. He enters this game with a 3-1 record and 5.34 ERA through 32 games (9 starts). He has posted a 3.86 xFIP this season, though, suggesting he’s due for plenty of positive regression as he throws more innings.
Voth hasn’t been a consistent starter, although he’s found more success in that role rather than as a reliever. His xFIP as a starter’s ranged anywhere from 1.79 to 6.75 through only 9 starts. It’s a wide range, although it’s important to note his overall success as a starter.
Voth gets a tough matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. They boast elite potential at home, although they’ve been struggling in recent games. It’s a tough situation to get a handle on, although I’m not overly hopeful that the right-hander dominates this game.
Bottom Line: Voth could find success tonight, but it’s a difficult matchup. He should continue to get better as the season progresses, but this isn’t a night to use him.
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Adam Oller: Oakland A’s
Matchup: Oakland A’s at Texas Rangers | 8:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 7.26 ERA suggests
Oller has been dreadful through 14 games (9 starts this season). He owns a 1-5 record with a 7.26 ERA. His xFIP sits at 6.29, which is nearly 1 full run lower than his ERA, but his xFIP is still one of the worst in the MLB.
Although his best starts aren’t overly great, Oller has been finding positive regression in recent games. His ERA sits below his xFIP in 3 of his last 4 starts. He is also coming off of his best start of the season, holding the Houston Astros to only 2 earned runs over 4.2 innings.
Oller gets a reasonable matchup against the Texas Rangers tonight. They have seen mixed results in recent games, and they are a reasonable matchup on this slate.
Bottom Line: Oller isn’t a good pitcher by any stretch, but he’s due for some positive regression. I wouldn’t expect a gem out of him tonight, but he could find some success.
Michael Kopech: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.18 ERA suggests
Kopech makes his way onto this list once again. He’s found plenty of success in 2022, posting a 4-8 record with a 3.18 ERA through 21 starts. His 4.69 xFIP and .225 BABIP suggest he’s due for regression, though.
Kopech hasn’t thrown overly well in terms of advanced metrics, although he’s a player that will throw a gem every now and then. He has recorded an xFIP over 4.00 in 9 of his last 11 starts, although his ERA sat over 4.00 in only 5 of those starts.
Kopech gets a tough matchup against the Houston Astros. They’ve been playing well recently, and they own a .329 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Kopech has looked great this season, but his advanced metrics suggest he is due for regression. He gets a tough matchup against Houston tonight, and I’m expecting him to struggle a bit.
