The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Tuesday, August 16
Sean Manaea: San Diego Padres
Matchup: San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins | 6:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.76 ERA indicates
Manaea has seen mixed results through 21 starts this season. He owns a 6-6 record with a 4.76 ERA thus far. His 3.92 xFIP suggests he’s throwing better than his baseline metrics show, though.
Manaea has been a boom or bust option on the mound this season. He’s extremely inconsistent, flashing elite upside. These inconsistencies can be summed up in his last two starts, where he owns 5.08 and 2.96 xFIPs. This has more or less been the case for the left-hander throughout the season.
The San Diego lefty gets a great matchup against a struggling Miami Marlins offense. They’ve been the worst team in the MLB against left-handed pitching since July 16th. He’ll also benefit from throwing in a pitcher-friendly stadium tonight.
Bottom Line: Manaea isn’t overly consistent, but this is an ideal matchup for him. He should find plenty of success in this game.
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Edward Cabrera: Miami Marlins
Matchup: San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins | 6:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.05 ERA suggests
Cabrera has thrown at an extremely high level through limited innings this season. He owns a 3-1 record with a 2.05 ERA through only 5 starts. His 3.97 xFIP and .186 BABIP suggest he’s due for regression, though.
The Miami hurler is in an interesting spot since he struggled early in the season. Since returning from injury, he’s posted 2.84 and 2.31 xFIPs. He recorded 5.69, 4.76, and 4.59 xFIPs in his first three starts of the season.
Cabrera gets a terrible matchup against the San Diego Padres tonight, though. They feature one of the best offenses in the MLB, and they broke out in their last series. Although they struggled against Sandy Alcantara last night, I’m expecting the patient San Diego offense to get to the young pitcher tonight.
Bottom Line: Cabrera has looked elite since returning from injury, but I don’t expect that to fully continue to against the Padres tonight. He may find some success, but he could struggle with control against this particular offense.
Patrick Corbin: Washington Nationals
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 7.02 ERA suggests
Corbin has been atrocious throughout the 2022 season. He owns a 4-16 record with a 7.02 ERA through 23 starts. His advanced metrics aren’t even that bad for his spot in the rotation, though, as he owns a 4.14 xFIP.
The veteran lefty has thrown worse than his advanced metrics for a few seasons now, though. He isn’t a good pitcher by any stretch, but he certainly isn’t as bad as his 7.02 ERA suggests. There will be a point in time when he starts finding positive regression.
Corbin gets a plus matchup against the Chicago Cubs tonight. They’ve been one of the worst offenses in the MLB against left-handed pitching since July 16th. I’m not fully expecting Corbin to dominate them, but he should find some success in this game.
Bottom Line: Corbin is clearly a bad pitcher, but he isn’t as bad as he’s throwing. This is a good matchup for him, and he should find some level of success.
